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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10

      Noah Smith Retweeted Slate

      Yet another article about why demographics will not sweep the Democrats to inevitable crushing permanent dominance.https://twitter.com/Slate/status/1050216885097308160 …

      Noah Smith added,

      SlateVerified account @Slate
      Democrats have been counting on Hispanic voters to save them. It’s not happening. https://slate.trib.al/4hEzu4t  pic.twitter.com/v022TN1TXD
      15 replies 27 retweets 153 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10

      I feel like Judis and Teixeira did America a double disservice. By convincing both parties that ethnic bloc voting + demographic destiny = permanent Dem dominance, they made the Dems complacent and the GOP insane and xenophobic.

      8:12 PM - 10 Oct 2018
      • 38 Retweets
      • 243 Likes
      • 🍍Tommaso Sciortino🥑 Brian Myers Mohammad bin Mohamed Smocky Thomas Kevin Watts Antonio De Loera Laissez Fail Joe The Rigolo
      24 replies 38 retweets 243 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Elizabeth Sacha Baroness Cohen‏ @alixabeth Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          J & T did not make the GOP insane and xenophobic

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @alixabeth

          I think they scared em

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Dr Elizabeth Sacha Baroness Cohen‏ @alixabeth Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I don’t think the timeline matches up. GOP was xenophobic before they came on the scene. Bush’s immigration reform was DOA in 2001. Ppl like Kris Kobach have always had this axe to grind and GOP racial appeals have been standard forever. The Tea Party came among later and pushed

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @alixabeth

          This doesn't seem like an accurate timeline or characterization to me. Bush kept pushing amnesty through to 2006, and even in 2013 there was vigorous intra-GOP debate on whether to try to win Hispanic votes with a compromise on immigration.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion @alixabeth

          There has always been a xenophobic contingent among the GOP, of course, but polls show significant variation over time:pic.twitter.com/v31sq3RWXX

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        7. Dr Elizabeth Sacha Baroness Cohen‏ @alixabeth Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          This depicts responses to whether immigrants are a burden, which I think is not quite the right data to resolve a dispute about whether immigrants are a threat. Immigrants evolved into a threat in many people’s eyes after 1993 and 9/11, and this was pushed by career xenophobes

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        8. Dr Elizabeth Sacha Baroness Cohen‏ @alixabeth Oct 10
          Replying to @alixabeth @Noahpinion

          like Brimelow, CIS, etc. The 1996 leg had bipartisan support but it couldn’t have happened without serious GOP xenophobia.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @alixabeth

          I mean, I think there was always a xenophobic contingent, and that the early 90s saw a big spike in anti-Hispanic sentiment that seemed to calm down as the decade continued.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        10. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Mike Konczal‏Verified account @rortybomb Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Need more here. Buchanan, a proto-Trump, almost won the GOP in 1992, a decade before Judis/Texieira. The GOP would be on voter suppression and carceralizing immigration no matter what Dem strategists wrote in the early aughts.

          4 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @rortybomb

          I think you're right about voter suppression, but not necessarily about carceralizing (sp?) immigration. George W. Bush took a far different approach in the 00s. Xenophobia did spike in the early 90s but didn't take over the GOP. Now it has.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion @rortybomb

          Plus, I don't think it was *just* Judis and Teixeira, but a widespread belief and theory that demographics + ethnic bloc voting meant permanent Dem dominance. Plus the misperception that Hispanic voters handed Obama the presidency in 2012.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        5. Mike Konczal‏Verified account @rortybomb Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Eh, Karl Rove was calling a "permanent Republican majority" in the W. Bush years. Politicos do that. W. Bush's immigration reform was killed by conservatives in his base, a sign of things to come.

          0 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. 𑀉𑀧𑀸𑀲𑀓‏ @taiwanoxen Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Haha. They were always xenophobic, if not in your circles.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @taiwanoxen

          There was always a xenophobic contingent, but it was not always dominant, as evidenced by Reagan's amnesty and encouragement of Mexican immigration.

          2 replies 2 retweets 6 likes
        4. 𑀉𑀧𑀸𑀲𑀓‏ @taiwanoxen Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I apologize for conflating different issues. But the GOP 4ank and file I have always known from childhood in IN to adulthood in TX is really quite racist. And that's why i am always baffled when people suggest it hasn't always been in charge. Although i know Reagan!= Goldwater

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @taiwanoxen

          Anti-black racism has been fairly constant, at least in recent decades, but anti-immigrant xenophobia has had big ups and downs, at least if you believe A) polls, and B) policies.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        6. 𑀉𑀧𑀸𑀲𑀓‏ @taiwanoxen Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I dunno, they seemed to me to be racists that could turn on a dime. Anti-black every day, yes, and inventing slurs as needed for Arabs or Hispanics as required by circumstance. This wing was not dominant before Trump, sure, but they were courted by the President and it shows.

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @taiwanoxen

          yep

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. (((Ann Dubin)))‏ @annhdubin Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I agree with the spirit of this, but how many people (on either side) do we think actually *read* Judis & Teixeira? I skimmed it, but only ‘cause @pklinkne made me do it.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 10
          Replying to @annhdubin @pklinkne

          Fair. I was using "Judis and Teixeira" as shorthand for the overall thesis that Hispanic population growth = permanent Dem majority. I know they weren't nearly the only ones saying or thinking this.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. (((Ann Dubin)))‏ @annhdubin Oct 10
          Replying to @Noahpinion @pklinkne

          Word.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        5. End of conversation

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