Overall, the banging signal was about 93% accurate in predicting a non-fastball (very good). And when the bang was right, hitters added ~25 points to their SLG, also very good and a significant benefit when summed up over the entire team.
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but the banging was sometimes not accurate and when that happened the 'Stros really suffered--their team OPS fell by ~200 points. The net effect, when you add up the times the banging was right and when it was wrong, ends up being very close to zero.
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The big complicating factor here is that the data only includes bangs, which leaves whistles, buzzers, shouting, etc. as unknown factors. If those were also happening regularly (as the MLB report suggests) then all bets are off...
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because it means that some of those times it looked like the banging was in error or missing pitches, the signal was actually just getting delivered in a different way. Which would significantly alter this story.
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A big complicating factor with any kind of analysis here is that Jose Altuve did not receive the banging signal barely at all and he was one of the Astros' best hitters. Was he really abstaining from the cheating? Or was he receiving the signal a different way? Don't know yet.
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This was a first-pass analysis and I'm really looking forward to getting into the data more and also seeing what insights other people like
@jakemailhot can pull out of it. There are so many different factors that we shouldn't be surprised if different conclusions are drawn.Prikaži ovu nit -
It's going to continue to be a mystery for a while yet and possibly forever. There are ways of cheating that they could have used (like buzzing bandages) that we'll never be able to test or examine. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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This is a great analysis. I stuck with the tedious work of this project hoping smart people like Rob would find it useful. P.S., Your article with the spectrogram was fantastic and inspired this project. (I'm not sure if I should thank you or curse you!
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I'm completely floored that you took the time to do it. Major, major props. And thank you.
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Has anyone reviewed video from the playoffs? The report said that the system was in use throughout the postseason, but there is no bang data here for October.
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Can't speak for Tony but I have and heard no definite banging. I think they used another signal then.
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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