In the past 3 years, 2 countries demonstrated their reckless ability to drag the world into an all-out global war over Syria: NATO member Turkey in 2015 and US ally Israel this week. Both are responsible for shooting down a Russian military airplane legally operating in Syria:
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Where does this leave us? The Kremlin’s modus operandi has been restrained and focused on the long term. Those trigger-happy for a military retaliation will not get one. However, Israel seems to favor a divided Syria engulfed in chaos, whereas Russia and Iran seek the opposite.
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In this sense, it is surprising that there hadn’t been more military incidents of this kind between Russia and Israel. The latter will have to adapt its behavior by facing the realities on the ground—that Syria is largely liberated.
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And Russia has to face the limits of its multi-vector policy in the Middle East involving regional and global players with conflicting agendas.
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It’s my impression that Israel would stop incursions into Syria if Syria would stop shipping weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has the right to self defense, as every country does, and is under attack constantly. So, in my view, these attacks are provoked by Syria.
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Also, since Israel is being attacked militarily constantly from all sides, I would be inclined to allow the country considerable extra leeway in it’s self defense. If Israel’s this were to change and treaties were signed, I would be much more critical.
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