This is part of why I abandoned my psychology graduate degree. Far too many make careers fabricating useless terminology. There are enclaves doing good work, often with far less attention, especially when their work doesn't support leftist dogma
"With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice..., macroeconomic analysis..., and pharmaceutical trials replicating at best only 1/3 of the time, people are perfectly entitled to ... listen to their grandmothers (or Montaigne...)" https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577 …
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“Label driven” Love that.
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"...he has never gotten drunk with Russians; he never drank to the point when one starts breaking glasses (or, preferably, chairs);"
. Great article and a precision strike on a source of much angst and frustration over the years.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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or even scale for that matter. Great question.
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Well... no. That the scientists are wrong does not make it more likely that Grandma is right. Lets keep rationality and disciplined willingness to acknowledge the limits to knowledge front and center.
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It changes the relative ratio. If Granny is only right 50% of the time it's already better to listen to her than the scientists.
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A change in the relative ratio _also_ does not 'perfectly entitle' one to listen to one's grandma, if we take that to mean 'justify our confidence in what our grandmother says,' which is the role this phrase is playing here.
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What justifies confidence is the track record that a particular category of evidence has, as borne out by prior experiences relating the experience of the evidence in terms of correlation, and ideally a reductionist causal account.
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Confidence is not justified -- even one little tiny bit -- by the fact that other categories of evidence are shown to be terrible. You may be forced to ACT on the best of bad evidence options, but you are never forced to have unjustified confidence.
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Unjustified confidence is my nominee for the #1 mental habit that is going to destroy our civilization -- and this grandma thing is another way to subtly encourage it.
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One of my favorite pieces related to this: https://medium.com/@drjasonfung/the-corruption-of-evidence-based-medicine-killing-for-profit-41f2812b8704 …
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Buenísima reflexión !!!!
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But it's not science!
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