Almost any conjectures about the future behavior of humans in a novel social system are necessarily non-rigorous. Pretending they are rigorous is a fallacy akin to false precision. Overly exact models give many people false certainty about social (including economic) behavior. https://twitter.com/cryptokaze666/status/956469671871635456 …
We can know objectively how the technology itself will behave, mainly via computer science.
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If you presuppose that a person is conjecturing then obviously their statements will be non-rigorous. Those who don't know a thing can't comment on it. This is not conjecture
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