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Are any physical systems "novel"?
Yes but they are qualitatively less complicated than social systems, which involve strategic decisions of brains as large as our own.
How do you know that if you admittedly cant model "quality"?
We can know objectively how the technology itself will behave, mainly via computer science.
If you presuppose that a person is conjecturing then obviously their statements will be non-rigorous. Those who don't know a thing can't comment on it. This is not conjecture
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