The black swan you get is extremely unlikely to be the black swan you were thinking of. History is not physics. Supposed "forces" and "trends" "underlying history" are figments of the imagination of "forecasters" like Friedrich Engels and Ian Morris.https://twitter.com/Stratfor/status/937646665724518400 …
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One should not underestimate the power of mathematics or of logic. Causality is simply Modus Ponens over a poset of events.
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Lol it’s a concise way of saying that given that we know that B always proceeds from A, once A has occurred we may infer that B will occur. I do agree with you though. These events are incredibly difficult to predict, some modernly impossible.
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But, for instance, if the blockchain scalability problem is not solved in the next couple of years, then given the ridiculous $$$ being poured into blockchain through tech, finance & crypto, the blockchain bubble will wreak global economic havoc that “no one” saw coming.
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