One should not underestimate the power of mathematics or of logic. Causality is simply Modus Ponens over a poset of events.
The black swan you get is extremely unlikely to be the black swan you were thinking of. History is not physics. Supposed "forces" and "trends" "underlying history" are figments of the imagination of "forecasters" like Friedrich Engels and Ian Morris.https://twitter.com/Stratfor/status/937646665724518400 …
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"simply"
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Lol it’s a concise way of saying that given that we know that B always proceeds from A, once A has occurred we may infer that B will occur. I do agree with you though. These events are incredibly difficult to predict, some modernly impossible.
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The black swan you expect is not a black swan.
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Black swan is epistemic phenomenon. If you (can) predict it, it ain't a black swan (for you)
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And to add, noone needs to think about predicting them but how to handle them when they occur, especially when the impact is devastating.
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we should develop a sensitivity to the conditions under which they occur, without predicting them specifically. beyond that, yes, it is a response capacity that is needed.
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Agreed.
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Yes, the black swan you anticipate is a grey swan.
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Thinking you can predict and prevent black swans *is* how you get hit by a black swan.
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I have to re-read "Black Swan." I walked away from it thinking a "Black Swan" was an event enormous in its effect but unanticipated. Unanticipated precisely because, practically speaking, one basically couldn't -- i.e., once you imagine it, it can't be one.
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ROFL... that was seriously a discussion -- deduct rep points please. Black Swan is unexplainable and non-causal or it wouldn't be a true black swan.
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And generally only "discovered" in retrospect.
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@CryptoCobain wants to be your friend again, unblock him?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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And a whole lot of superstition.
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Your first sentence is exactly right. That's what makes them black swans
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You can assume something about fat tails that lead to change your asset allocations in portfolios, and fat tail distributions probably have little value from a planning perspective aside from that.
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Shit I be just seen a Green Black Swan!
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Furthermore, a black swan event is by definition unexpected. As soon as you predict it (and especially when you plan for it) it ceases to be a black swan IMO.
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