@NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter On a proto-earth, no niches are filled; all are open. No competition by definition.
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@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Be that as it may, what does that have to do with linearity of genomes as clocks and that paper's model?
@gwern @cinnamon_carter Linearity is just a good initial way to avoid "and now a miracle occurred" assumptions that plague these debates.
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@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Arggh. No, the linearity drives the entire extrapolation beyond Earth in that paper! -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter Prokaryote-like fossils appear as soon as Earth bombardment ends. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter Thinking about genomic complexity & chemical ability shows effective impossibility life originated then & there. -
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter If it appeared before, how could you ever know? The bombardment censors observations. That was what I meant. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter We should reason from what we know: chemical abilities of metabolisms and the genomic complexities those require. -
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter It's still unclear if 'genomes' proper are needed or if RNA World (or pre-RNA!) didn't do both simultaneously. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter The issue is the complexity needed to encode, whether in RNA or DNA, metabolic functions. -
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter The issue is assumption length must follow a exact linear form extrapolated back 9bya from present-day data. - 8 more replies
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@gwern@cinnamon_carter It's an early theory with much room for improvement, many niches open to grow into. Don't kill it off. :-)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Start at a high level and project backwards and linear models almost always do that! The intercepts are absurd.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter I know you've messed with linear models, you must have seen this happen - you fit a model & get intercept=-4789Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter You either ignore or fit more sensible model like a log/lognormal/sigmoid or something, not publish papersThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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