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NickSzabo4's profile
Nick Szabo 🔑
Nick Szabo 🔑
Nick Szabo  🔑
@NickSzabo4

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Nick Szabo  🔑

@NickSzabo4

Blockchain, cryptocurrency, and smart contracts pioneer. (RT/Fav/Follow does not imply endorsement). Blog: http://unenumerated.blogspot.com 

Joined June 2014

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    1. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 22 Sep 2015
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @gwern

      @NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter Genome length is not a clock; it is an expense. If my budget increases 1% year, that means I am centuries old?

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @gwern

      @gwern @cinnamon_carter Expense => evolution tries to minimize it => makes good proxy measure for difficulty/improbability.

      1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
    3. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @NickSzabo4

      @gwern @cinnamon_carter Positing leap from nothing to 4^(10^5) complexity prokaryote in short time is "a miracle occured here" assumption.

      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
    4. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @NickSzabo4

      @gwern @cinnamon_carter Before first self-sufficient ecosystem there could only be random trials with RNA & proteins.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @NickSzabo4

      @gwern @cinnamon_carter P atoms in universe limit random trials of RNA at 1e6/second in parallel to << 10^92 in 10e10 yrs.

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    6. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @NickSzabo4

      @gwern @cinnamon_carter Making efficiently compressed 150 base-pair organism may be feasible. For 200 base pairs << ~ 1/10^27.

      4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @NickSzabo4

      @gwern @cinnamon_carter In other words, the first self-sustaining ecosystem had to be vastly simpler than efficiently compressed prokaryote.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @NickSzabo4

      @NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter True and irrelevant. Complexity of minimal life doesn't imply strict linearity of growth over all time!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @gwern

      @gwern @cinnamon_carter The point is not strict linearity, the point is eliminate the hidden assumption of miraculously improbable events.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @NickSzabo4

      @NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter Huh? the point of that paper *is* strict linearity. It's whole model: assume linearity and project backwards.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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      Replying to @gwern

      @gwern @cinnamon_carter It posits a reasonable working assumption about complexity growth instead of hand-waving about "open niches".

      2:28 PM - 22 Sep 2015
      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4

          @gwern @cinnamon_carter Ecosystem with 150 base pairs of complexity is chemically very handicapped, and has very few open niches available.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4

          @NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter On a proto-earth, no niches are filled; all are open. No competition by definition.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @gwern

          @gwern @cinnamon_carter It's not a niche if no organism has chemical ability to exploit it.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4

          @gwern @cinnamon_carter Niches that required photosynthesis, nitrogen fixing, and even many far simpler capabilities were unavailable.

          1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
        6. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4

          @NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter Nevertheless, early Earth would have a great variety of organic chemicals to harvest. That is a big opportunity

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @gwern

          @gwern @cinnamon_carter What kinds of organics? What 150 base pair ecosystem could exploit them? Be specific stop hand-waving.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4

          @NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter It would use the amino acids and nuclear acids floating around, you know that. The usual abiogenesis proposals.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @gwern

          @gwern @cinnamon_carter A 150 base pair ecosystem can't catch, much less put to use, most of the amino & nuclear acids floating around.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 20 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4

          @NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter If genomes are clocks and linear growth at all sensible, why aren't *all* genomes ever longer?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @gwern

          @gwern @cinnamon_carter It's overall pattern that reflects laws of probability and expense of genome (thus long-term efficient compression).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern 22 Sep 2015
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4

          @NickSzabo4 @cinnamon_carter Not reasonable at all. No genomes are clocks. All lineages trace back 4bya; evolution has not stopped anywhere.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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