Evidence that life started developing near the time the Universe began to reach present state pdf http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1304/1304.3381.pdf … (HT @NickSzabo4 )
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@gwern@cinnamon_carter P atoms in universe limit random trials of RNA at 1e6/second in parallel to << 10^92 in 10e10 yrs.
@gwern @cinnamon_carter Making efficiently compressed 150 base-pair organism may be feasible. For 200 base pairs << ~ 1/10^27.
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@gwern@cinnamon_carter In other words, the first self-sustaining ecosystem had to be vastly simpler than efficiently compressed prokaryote. -
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter True and irrelevant. Complexity of minimal life doesn't imply strict linearity of growth over all time! -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter The point is not strict linearity, the point is eliminate the hidden assumption of miraculously improbable events. -
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Huh? the point of that paper *is* strict linearity. It's whole model: assume linearity and project backwards. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter It posits a reasonable working assumption about complexity growth instead of hand-waving about "open niches". -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter Ecosystem with 150 base pairs of complexity is chemically very handicapped, and has very few open niches available. -
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter On a proto-earth, no niches are filled; all are open. No competition by definition. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter It's not a niche if no organism has chemical ability to exploit it. - 25 more replies
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@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Whatever the size of the first life, genome size can then explode with lack of competition and new niches.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Ask yourself: if genomes are clocks, why are viruses - furiously mutating for 3bya+ - so short?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Why expect that life comes into existence & then strict increase each year in length regardless of conditions?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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