Evidence that life started developing near the time the Universe began to reach present state pdf http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1304/1304.3381.pdf … (HT @NickSzabo4 )
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Replying to @cinnamon_carter
@cinnamon_carter@NickSzabo4 "They strain at the gnat of the prior who swallow the camel of the likelihood."1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @gwern
@gwern@cinnamon_carter There's far more evidence in the paper than just the trend-line3 replies 1 retweet 0 likes -
Replying to @NickSzabo4
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter And using *current* complexity as measures of *historical* complexity... Prokaryote evolution stopped 3bya...?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @gwern
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Genome length is not a clock; it is an expense. If my budget increases 1% year, that means I am centuries old?3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @gwern
@gwern@cinnamon_carter Expense => evolution tries to minimize it => makes good proxy measure for difficulty/improbability.1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes -
Replying to @NickSzabo4
@gwern@cinnamon_carter Positing leap from nothing to 4^(10^5) complexity prokaryote in short time is "a miracle occured here" assumption.2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
@gwern @cinnamon_carter Long-term steady rate --> thinking about the probable instead of fantasizing about the astronomically improbable.
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