Evidence that life started developing near the time the Universe began to reach present state pdf http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1304/1304.3381.pdf … (HT @NickSzabo4 )
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@gwern@cinnamon_carter Expense => evolution tries to minimize it => makes good proxy measure for difficulty/improbability.
@gwern @cinnamon_carter Positing leap from nothing to 4^(10^5) complexity prokaryote in short time is "a miracle occured here" assumption.
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@gwern@cinnamon_carter Before first self-sufficient ecosystem there could only be random trials with RNA & proteins. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter P atoms in universe limit random trials of RNA at 1e6/second in parallel to << 10^92 in 10e10 yrs. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter Making efficiently compressed 150 base-pair organism may be feasible. For 200 base pairs << ~ 1/10^27. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter In other words, the first self-sustaining ecosystem had to be vastly simpler than efficiently compressed prokaryote. -
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter True and irrelevant. Complexity of minimal life doesn't imply strict linearity of growth over all time! -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter The point is not strict linearity, the point is eliminate the hidden assumption of miraculously improbable events. -
@NickSzabo4@cinnamon_carter Huh? the point of that paper *is* strict linearity. It's whole model: assume linearity and project backwards. -
@gwern@cinnamon_carter It posits a reasonable working assumption about complexity growth instead of hand-waving about "open niches". - 28 more replies
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@gwern@cinnamon_carter Long-term steady rate --> thinking about the probable instead of fantasizing about the astronomically improbable.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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