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That’s comparing the cost of the re-org to the value of the transaction, without considering the crash in price that would occur if such a reorg took place, due to loss of confidence in BTC, or due to them market selling such huge quantity immediately after the reorg.
If attacker exchanged the later-reversed BTC for something non-BTC of same value, & incurred no external costs (e.g. law enforcement) -- a big if, but the trust minimizing assumption -- price must tank 100% before attacker could double-spend, else still has some profit.
Are there any non-btc transactions of this size which cannot be reversed at least as easily as the attack you describe? Is that even possible? Maybe a very large black market art or drug deal? Or and exchange of gold between nation states?
We should strongly discourage making Bitcoin security dependent on speculations about reversing any of myriad of possible things externally, e.g. the costs of reversing another crytocurrency blockchain (probably a Bitcoin competitor) in a crypto-for-crypto exchange.
Thanks for the reply Nick. Yes, I think I see. So the number of confirmations required for settlement should correlate with tx value, and when considering the attack vector, we should assume a large asset purchase, or for that matter an OTC sale at predetermined price.
Can I ask what legal recourse anyone would possibly have against somebody reorging their transactions?
The larger the payment, the more secure it is against double spends due to the cost and difficulty of arranging hashpower, right?
Correct, but your calculation of 40 days changes.
It's probably not very easy to double spend 94,500 BTC at a 1 billion valuation. If sent a confirmation later, the receiver of that transaction could become aware that it is a double spend and which one will be the real one is still indeterminate. Both would have to wait 50 days.
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