Nick Szabo  🔑

Government capital control and exchange rate manipulation behavior is unpredictable and spiky, so responses to that can also be expected to create volatility.

Volatility also comes because 21mn BTCs eventually will equal multi-trillion USDs ! At this time, whenever anyone with few million USDs to spare figures out it, cause price spike and when he/she is done buying, sellers can easily overwhelm the market for short term before the 1/

Better yet, can bitcoin be used to capitalize on this?

That's what the above study implies, that it is being used to do so.

I partially agree since #Bitcoin prices have also been subject to #manipulation and therefore the causality of detecting these manipulations could be wrong.

That was a major concern when I wrote the paper, and is one reason why I restricted it to only data sources where I could get all the data I need: mix-&-match data, especially when there can be exchange-specific manipulation (which is rampant) leads to problems in detection.

The problem I see here is that even if you have all the data of the major #BTC exchanges, manipulated data doesn't necessary average out (in case some/all of them have manipulation).

Having a clean #Bitcoin time series is THE major challenge and actually an imperative for future #BTC derivatives.

Exactly, but as long as there is insufficient *within* exchange arbitrage you can normalize.

Sure, inter-exchange arbitrage is just a theoretical concept currently due to the spreads and the (massive) transaction costs.

I'm strictly referring to intra-exchange arbitrage. Inter-exchange arbitrage opportunities clearly exist.

They exist but are mostly not exploited in reality - that's what I have seen so far.