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The bond market thinks the U.S. government won't run a permanently massively larger budget deficit. Current interest rates: Endogenous to future fiscal policy. [A theme of Chapter 2 of 10% Less Democracy] [Also: Nobelist Thomas Sargent is still wildly underappreciated]https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1169016809854558212 …
Then the bond market is trying to predict the unpredictable. If the people buying and selling don't have the actual knowledge then such knowledge is not in fact reflected in the price. The main thing we can predict is that surprises *will* happen.
People can have knowledge or liquidity. Later wins all the time
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