Buffet is stuck between a rock & a hard place. He doesn't believe in assets that don't produce a fiat income stream, so won't do gold or crypto. Even less love for negative interest so growing sour on bonds. He doesn't have any place left to put money that fits his philosophy.https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1167973272610230272 …
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Totally agree, but I doubt he’ll admit defeat. My guess is for now he’ll focus on dividends. But he is sitting on so much cash right now...
Sitting on fiat is the big white flag of the financial world, it's admitting defeat like words could never do.
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You are right. But Buffet, like many investors, seems to be a victim of normalcy bias - what has worked in the past will continue to work in the future. The past 70 years have taught him that there is no better place to compound you investment than stocks. So he sits and waits...
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That's not necessarily still wrong, just likely to keep increasing in dependence on the central bank cheap money spigot, so increasingly vulnerable to political disruptions in that.
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Not trying to argue, but I suspect you have this data at your fingertips, so I'll ask: how much of a cash stash to Apple and Google have?
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Nope, I'm no better at DuckDuckGo than the next guy.
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Assuming google is accurate, which I'm not sure about, for Apple at the end of July it was 210 billion, but at the end of April it was 225.
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According to a different article that was counting net cash rather than cash in hand, Alphabet has 117 billion in liquid reserves compared to Apple's 102 once debt is subtracted. For reference, the article:https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/1/20749831/alphabet-google-apple-cash-reserves-richest-company …
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If someone wants to throw up the not-an-accurate-source flag on that one, I don't mind.
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And for the record, it bugs me in the "why are they doing that?" sense that Apple has borrowed and/or continues to borrow 100 billion dollars for the privilege of sitting on a 200 billion dollar stockpile instead of a 100 billion dollar one.
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Their interest rate differential is very small, compared to the big differential a small business faces and the huge one somebody charging a Mac to their credit card faces. The Cantillon effect at work:https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1031232173561368576 …
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1/2 Before my morning coffee and bagel, so, stupid, but for purposes of brainstorming I'll say it: if the differential were negative they could actually be making money dong nothing in the current state.
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I believe his sitting on cash just waiting for everything to colapse. The only thing that can stop him is inflation, wich is pretty low for now in the us.
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I can relate with him only wanting to invest in things that generate a stream of income, compound interests is a very powerfull tool.
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Nick, I'm a fan of you, gold and bitcoin...I believe gold/bitcoin have a place going forward. I also believe free mkts will continue to evolve over time. I think we are in a phase with all the money printing, not sure it means the end.
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Or it's a bet on deflation.
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