Who wants to sign this contract with me? You give me $1000 today, and then I'll give you back $990 in three years. There are $15 trillion dollars worth of contracts like this - Right, Now.
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Just curious: What is your worst case scenario on this example. I think we can exclude default but what max. drawdown (in real return terms) do you expect if shit hits the fan?
Big problems when interest rates turn around and start rising. People who borrowed short duration and loaned or invested long duration get squeezed and default, raising interest rates further, causing more defaults, etc. in a cascade of defaults.
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The bigger banks and some big corporations hold big cash cushions and are thus up to the limit of those reserves immune to this, although utilizing those that cash which they had been just sitting on may cause inflation. Recession + inflation = stagflation, e.g. 1970s USA.
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Sounds doomsdayish. But possible.
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