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NickSzabo4's profile
Nick Szabo 🔑
Nick Szabo 🔑
Nick Szabo  🔑
@NickSzabo4

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Nick Szabo  🔑

@NickSzabo4

Blockchain, cryptocurrency, and smart contracts pioneer. (RT/Fav/Follow does not imply endorsement). Blog: http://unenumerated.blogspot.com 

Joined June 2014

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    1. Tuur Demeester‏ @TuurDemeester Jul 25
      • Report Tweet

      Argentina has the best stock market in the world: +50% every year! Until you realize it's denominated in a heavily inflating currency.pic.twitter.com/pAGbzjTWLG

      29 replies 121 retweets 538 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Vess‏ @VessOnSecurity Jul 25
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      Replying to @TuurDemeester

      This is typical behavior of stock markets during hyper-inflationary periods. Initially, they are a good hedge against inflation (and raise exponentially just as the currency falls exponentially) but inevitably they fall behind hard assets. Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany, may others.

      2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
      Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 Jul 25
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      Replying to @VessOnSecurity @TuurDemeester

      USA 1970s. Nominal value of the stock market roughly unchanged. Real value down about 90% over the decade.

      2:33 PM - 25 Jul 2019
      • 1 Retweet
      • 4 Likes
      • BitcoinTina☣️- "TINA" (There is no Alternative) Ez Cicero Tuur Demeester
      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Vess‏ @VessOnSecurity Jul 25
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4 @TuurDemeester

          That was stagflation, though - not hyper-inflation. The trends weren't exponential.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 Jul 25
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          Replying to @VessOnSecurity @TuurDemeester

          Yes, perhaps thanks to Paul Volcker it didn't turn into hyperinflation and instead reversed. But demonstrates closer to home than Weimar in time or Zimbabwe in culture part of your point namely that stocks don't necessarily hedge inflation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Vess‏ @VessOnSecurity Jul 25
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4 @TuurDemeester

          They are a hedge only during the initial stages, yes. (Venezuela is likely to get much worse.) But I'm not sure it was due to Volker raising rates that hyper-inflation didn't happen. He stopped the inflation, yes.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Vess‏ @VessOnSecurity Jul 25
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          Replying to @VessOnSecurity @NickSzabo4 @TuurDemeester

          But hyper-inflation happens when there is a major loss of confidence in the currency or in the government; it's not just a case of over-supply of currency, like normal inflation. In fact, I can't remember a case when a reserve currency had hyper-inflation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Vess‏ @VessOnSecurity Jul 25
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          Replying to @VessOnSecurity @NickSzabo4 @TuurDemeester

          Even the Roman denarius, which is often given as an example of abruptly debased currency, wasn't really hyper-inflation. There were periods when it wasn't minted at all (deflation?) and people kept hoarding it, despite the debasement.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. End of conversation

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