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We cld say that if there are newspaper articles (NYT, WaPo etc) before eg Jan 1, 2020 reporting: -Mueller is diagnosed with dementia etc, I win -Mueller was faking his condition, you win if neither, the bet is off. Tho there may be a slight bias in my favor w/ these conditions
I don't see a scenario where the second can be objectively proven, to the satisfaction of people believing his memory lapses were generally genuine, nor would I trust news sources generally, especially those to, to report on such matters in an unbiased way.
Yeah, that's the bias in my favor. Don't know of a good solution. Maybe adjust the payouts: eg I pay you $100 if you win and you pay me $50 if I win. It's not a good solution but I'd be up for it.
I appreciate the thought, but it's just way too subjective. At this point its basically just different interpretations of body language, voice intonations, and incentives/motivations.
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