Nick Szabo  🔑

Thinking of shorting an overvalued stock market? Central banks can print money far longer than you can remain solvent.https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/941755222472368128 …

not defending the Fed, but temporary money printing <> permanent money printing. 2050 supply of dollars remains unchanged...they simply front loaded the printing...hence no inflation. Could argue that more permanent money printing REDUCES P/E ratios and REDUCES bubbles

You have a magical crystal ball about what the money supply will be in 2050. Other people have astrology or channel aliens. YMMV.

Of course it could change, but right now treasury market has been right and sniffed out the Fed's timid response. Very unlikely. Short competing currencies, I'd argue for a NGDP futures market + removal of FOMC - makes 2050 NGDP entirely predictable (and likely money supply too)

That said I will take a stance: Those who are hoping cryptocurrencies take off because the US hyper inflates will very likely be disappointed. In my opinion, compared to the dollar, Bitcoin's censorship resistance is much more important than it's monetary policy

Money supply likely to increase 4-6% a year over next 10 -50 years. Based on present value, it won’t matter (much) if I spread it out vs print it all in year 1. More extreme = if I print $10T tomorrow but promise to tax it out of existence in 1 years time...then no inflation.