not defending the Fed, but temporary money printing <> permanent money printing. 2050 supply of dollars remains unchanged...they simply front loaded the printing...hence no inflation. Could argue that more permanent money printing REDUCES P/E ratios and REDUCES bubbles
Thinking of shorting an overvalued stock market? Central banks can print money far longer than you can remain solvent.https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/941755222472368128 …
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You have a magical crystal ball about what the money supply will be in 2050. Other people have astrology or channel aliens. YMMV.
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Of course it could change, but right now treasury market has been right and sniffed out the Fed's timid response. Very unlikely. Short competing currencies, I'd argue for a NGDP futures market + removal of FOMC - makes 2050 NGDP entirely predictable (and likely money supply too)
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That said I will take a stance: Those who are hoping cryptocurrencies take off because the US hyper inflates will very likely be disappointed. In my opinion, compared to the dollar, Bitcoin's censorship resistance is much more important than it's monetary policy
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Prefer the dollar cost averaging strategy for this short.
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A typical stock market short position is an infinite downside on a position that is long inflating fiat.
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Soros broke the Pound years back.
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That was going short the currency. Going short with a currency is going long that currency.
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This is why I'm not a billionaire currency speculator! Thanks Nick!
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That's just one of the more extreme sects of macroeconomic theology.
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It’s the insane world we’ve been in since Nixon left the gold standard, which is why you and your cypherpunk crew are present day Jedi knights. PS please bring back the blog!!
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What about hedging with something like an inverse etf? It's not as risky and will help in the event that a drop in the markets does happen.
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How can the inverse ETF work without itself having a long position in the currency?
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Not sure I follow (fairly new to investing) but I'll take that as a no, haha.
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