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NickSzabo4's profile
Nick Szabo 🔑
Nick Szabo 🔑
Nick Szabo  🔑
@NickSzabo4

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Nick Szabo  🔑

@NickSzabo4

Blockchain, cryptocurrency, and smart contracts pioneer. (RT/Fav/Follow does not imply endorsement). Blog: http://unenumerated.blogspot.com 

Joined June 2014

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    1. Joe Norman‏ @normonics 20 Feb 2018
      • Report Tweet

      "In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible" -- IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) Our statement http://fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf …

      4 replies 43 retweets 121 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Naval‏ @naval 20 Feb 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @normonics

      The problem with that line of reasoning is that it opens one up to other forms of “Pascal’s Scams.” http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2012/07/pascals-scams.html?m=1 …

      2 replies 4 retweets 20 likes
    3. Joe Norman‏ @normonics 20 Feb 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @naval

      one needs to mitigate via rigorous analysis of what is in fact systemic

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. Joe Norman‏ @normonics 20 Feb 2018
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      Replying to @normonics @naval

      i.e. there are *known* system attributes that you can point to as leading to multiplicative effects / the system lacks effective 'circuit breakers'

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    5. Joe Norman‏ @normonics 20 Feb 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @normonics @naval

      an example: airline travel / pandemic interaction. don't need any magic.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Brian Heligman‏ @BrianTHeligman 20 Feb 2018
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      Replying to @normonics @naval

      I agree wholeheartedly. It's well understood that in a closed system increasing CO2 concentration increases heat trapping. While the effects on climate may be unclear, carbon pollution is currently an externality and market failure. The risk of climate change should be priced in

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 Jul 19
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      Replying to @BrianTHeligman @normonics @naval

      It's one thing to point out qualitative risks and benefits, and quite another (and according to the above impossible) to quantify them, much less to quantify them in economic terms, that last necessary for figuring out how draconian our economic policies should be in response.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. Joe Norman‏ @normonics Jul 19
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      Replying to @NickSzabo4 @BrianTHeligman @naval

      We should be sorting out what is systemic risk from what is not Climate is a global-scale system I too share pessimism around any govt “solutions”

      3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
      Nick Szabo  🔑‏ @NickSzabo4 Jul 19
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      Replying to @normonics @BrianTHeligman @naval

      CO2 is an externality, likely very negative, so market solutions seem unlikely to work without coercion, hopefully in simple form (carbon tax, limited emission rights, or similar). But has to be global without substantial cheating + we don't know how draconian they should be.

      7:42 PM - 19 Jul 2019
      • 1 Retweet
      • 4 Likes
      • Riding Unicorns to the Moon Rohan Keshav Stefano Ben Baran Rees ΑΓΡ
      3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
        1. Trash Man Danny‏ @BillKil62267083 Jul 20
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4 @normonics and

          Really enjoyed this thread as someone who can’t seem to find good nuanced debate on climate change that isn’t highly politicized.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Chrisman Frank‏ @chrismanfrank Jul 19
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4 @normonics and

          Market solution works if cost low enough....no one kills sperm whales for oil anymore! I wouldn't be against global carbon tax, but think it's extremely unlikely to happen.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Riding Unicorns to the Moon‏ @dnarby Jul 20
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          Replying to @NickSzabo4 @normonics and

          All of this assumes the veracity of AGW, which is in serious doubt, BTW...https://sputniknews.com/environment/201907111076211867-study-sees-no-solid-evidence-for-man-made-climate-change/ …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Joe Norman‏ @normonics Jul 20
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          Replying to @dnarby @NickSzabo4 and

          read again, it's brief. https://fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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