"Beware of...beliefs..about very improbable outcomes that could have very large positive or negative consequences ... " History is usually a far more reliable guide to future events than such speculation. https://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2012/07/pascals-scams.html …
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I agree, tho I'm amenable to the position on, say, climate change that if the possible negative outcome is existential then you should probably take it seriously... I'd also wonder what it would look like if this were applied to people worrying about US hyperinflation spiral
It's long-shot speculative "existential threats" that are most likely to be Pascal Scams. That said, one should be concerned about the less speculative aspects of CO2 rise, including as I understand it global warming, fertilization effects (both good & bad), and ocean acidity.
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& don't get me started on the supposed "existential threats" that are not remotely close to any such thing. Extreme death & suffering still usually fall far short of an actual threat to our species or even to civilization, but these very different things are constantly confused.
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“Don’t get me started” falls on deaf ears when people want to hear your thoughts
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If you’re talking about climate I agree there’s a lot of silliness that seems to come from confusion about risk and poor reasoning about economics. I’m only focused on the supposed runaway effects that, I’m told, can’t be adapted to or unwound if they were triggered
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The supposed runaway effects are, as I understand it, the most speculative aspects of the theorizing and are highly likely to be Pascal scams.
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Good to know
End of conversation
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