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The lesson I drew from that and other aspects of history that the real money in these circumstances was gold -- that is what people wanted at the end of the day. If the gold window closed, the trust-based part of the system collapsed.
Trust and security considerations are far more important than speculations about aggregate human behavior. Psychologists have a hard time making their experiments on individuals repeatable. Macroeconomists speculate about vast numbers of interacting individuals, no repeatability.
High inflation causes savers and creditors large tangible harms, as we see today in Venezuela, Iran, Sudan, Nigeria, Argentina, &c. But alleged harms caused by much lower levels of "bad deflation" are very causally remote from monetary decisions -- it's ideological speculation.
While macroeconomic debates are very popular in the fiat central banking world, where monetary decisions are highly political, they are nevertheless ideological speculations not science.
For these reasons, I strongly urge those developing or maintaining cryptocurrencies to focus on trust minimization and security. Protect holders against internally caused loss of value, but treat macroeconomic considerations with many grains of salt and very low priority.
Youll always be my satoshi mr. Szabo
This point is critical in understanding why current macroeconomic approaches invariably draw erroneous conclusions. They assume only the “average” represents the utility function. It does not. There are a manifold of valid utility functions.
The approach we take in physics is to model the system with probability density functions. This works in the quantum and classical realms. But you get an extra term, entropy. I showed how this works in bitcoin in 2014https://statisticaleconomics.org/2014/03/13/quantifying-the-value-of-bitcoin-2/ …
Indeed, and as en economics major, it pains me to say, the whole field has proven to be dreadfully misconceived in its theoretical roots. 'Debunking Economics' by Keen is a great read on the topic.
Bitcoin's interesting this way from an information theory perspective. Instead of depending on high noise indices of purchasing power layered with assumptions and a manipulatable interest rate index, Bitcoin can provide a high signal opportunity cost of capital measure.
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