My take on financial podcasts: why are they so long? Never came across a good idea or trade that could not be explained in 2 minutes. The longer it takes, the higher the odds it’s bollocks.
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Nick Givanovic
@NickGiva
Ex JPM, Salomon & HF principal. Rates trader. I don't tweet at you: chill.
Non bene pro toto libertas venditur auro.
Nick Givanovic’s Tweets
My weekly video is uploaded: charityhedgefund.com/weekly-video
with implications for option pricing and other assets...
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Am I the only one asking how this Uki is not subject to conscription?
Would Stanley Matthews have been allowed to fuck off in mid WW2 to go play in Brazil?
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Very fast-moving Chelsea hijack for Mykhaylo Mudryk, who is now on his way to London. #CFC chose to meet Shakhtar’s €100m valuation with co-owner Behdad Eghbali being advised a face-to-face meeting with Shakhtar’s president was “essential”.
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Thanks you, Marcus!
Signed,
Arsenal Fans
Because it will make no difference to Man U's season.
#MUNMCI
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Not to be unkind...but this is one of the funniest things I have read in a long time.
Proves that it is much better to be completely ignorant than to have a little knowledge which will inevitably lead you to ridiculously wrong conclusions. twitter.com/TOzgokmen/stat
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Trading really is 95% waiting. All week I've been waiting for 5s to hit my sell level. Done nothing else all week. 10 seconds of action.
Waited before, now I wait for my profit level or stop...
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It’s gonna be cold this weekend! Still can’t get over the difference in temperature between Miami and Nassau. It never gets below 60 there. Never.
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Q for the creative accountants amongst you: I get that if you buy a bond at 90 and it is trading 80, you can say it will mature at 100 and it is not really a loss. But if you bought it at 120 and it is trading 90? What is the "deferred asset"? Hope?
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The Fed sent $76 billion in weekly remittances to the US Treasury last year but stopped doing so in September, when higher rates led its interest expenses to exceed its interest income.
It has since booked an $18.8 billion IOU called a "deferred asset" wsj.com/articles/fed-s
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To be fair to Boris, a Chicken Tikka Masala could upstage Sunak.
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Johnson accused of looking for ‘publicity’ in a war zone over Ukraine trip independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi
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This is all very well and good, but did it have to be written by someone with a massive deficit in his knowledge of Latin?
O tempora, o mores...
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Probably a heap of ruins. Fratricidal wars are always the bloodiest and most pitiless.
Wars eventually finish. But the hatred between brothers remains, for generations.
And that is the real tragedy.
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RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY: RUSSIAN FORCES HAVE TAKEN CONTROL OF SOLEDAR - TASS.
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You’ve got hand it to , he is a natural born comedian. His cellmates will have a good time 😂😂
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If you want to read some fiction: open.substack.com/pub/sambf/p/ft
Don’t know who wrote this but he is full of shit. So it’s probably Sam.
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Someone needs to explain to him that slower inflation means that prices still rise, but at a slower pace, so it is neither a nominal nor a real breathing room.
Oh never mind. He wouldn't get it...
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Today we have some good news about the economy: For the sixth month in a row, yearly inflation is down.
Inflation might be rising in economies around the world, but it’s coming down in America month after month, giving families some real breathing room.
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I would say that the major difference is that Biden actually read them, while Trump didn't.
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The Justice Department is scrutinizing how Joe Biden and Donald Trump both came to have classified records after they left office. But there are major differences. nyti.ms/3W7jSRY
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..and yet another example of journalists not knowing their ass from their elbow...
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Well...we all do. There is a guy who flies over to Fort Lauderdale Exec. Airport almost daily and picks up AMZN packages in his Cessna Caravan.
Takes a limited amount of passengers too. Very convenient and relatively cheap.
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FTX hired private planes to fly Amazon packages from Miami because it didn't deliver to the Bahamas, per FT.
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Oh good. Because flying yesterday was not enough of a nightmare...
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FAA reportedly facing computer outage, all US flights said to be grounded
forexlive.com/news/faa-repor
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This shows the effects of closing down an economy over a rinky-dink faux pandemic like COVID. You lose skills. It's not the jobs so much. It's the skills in that job. No one has a fucking clue what they are doing any more.
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Same result. Call over an attendant. Explain to her situation, show her where it says PAID on the ticket and show her the credit card I had paid with. They have no procedures for this and she has zero knowledge of what to do. Took me 10 min of arguing to get out of there.
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Anyway...was traveling yesterday. Finally got back to MIA where I had left my car in the Dolphin car park. Get to a machine before I get to the car and pay my $25 with a credit card. As asked to.
Drive to the exit & put my ticket in the reader: ticket unreadable. Try 5 times.
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Italian stonemasons are the best, no argument possible! twitter.com/zazzma_/status
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I never understand what these morons expect to achieve, maybe I am naïve. In any case, obviously not me...
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Looks like the current generation can’t even organize a run of the mill revolution.
WTF is the point of invading an empty building on a Sunday? Pure theatre.
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My weekly video is posted. This market behaviour is frustrating for long term players, but it is great for traders. I examine reasons and high risk/reward levels in all asset classes. And how will we know if and when it has changed...
charityhedgefund.com/weekly-video
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RIP Gianluca. Great player.
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Graeme Souness with a touching tribute to his friend Gianluca Vialli 
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Some great quotes in this article. Odds are shifting his way...
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(a) Fed widely understood to use guidance (statements) to achieve policy and (b) Fed credibility low yet (c) everyone equating guidance as de facto future rate hike action
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AND...given that the economic assumptions of the reaction function are based on their staff models, which have been MUCH more wrong than right, it is almost a certainty that what they predict will be nowhere near what actually happens.
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In other words: the dot plots and SEP are just reaction functions IF the underlying assumptions hold, not what they WILL DO under any circumstances.
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Many do not understand this.
IF CPI moderates quickly to 2%, as 1yr inflation swaps PREDICT (they could be wrong), the Fed will NOT CARE about unemployment any more. It can be as low as you like and they will still cut. No way do they keep real rates above 1.5% for long. IMHO.
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It’s not explicit guidance (“no cuts under any circumstances.”) But this is a key limitation of the SEP, particularly in a world with many possible outcomes.
In Dec 2021, nearly all had inflation declining to below 3% by Q4 2022 with no more than 100 bps in rate rises.
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Thanks for the great initial response. We look forward to helping investors have better conversations with their financial advisors
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Hey, everyone @nickgiva and I @dampedspring are 2 Gray Beards. Our goal is to equip end investors to have better conversations with their financial advisors. Give us 20 minutes per week and you will be on your way.
Visit 2GrayBeards.com for details.
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I am lucky that my branch is literally down the road, so that I could go there and check everything out.
Sophisticated attack. I was fooled for a long time.
Be careful...
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He instructed me not to read the text back to him "as he must not know my new login" and to "reply to the text with my old login, so they could deactivate it".
That's when the penny dropped. 💡💡💡
Phishing attack. Which was confirmed by genuine Chase.
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Then he put me on a brief hold while he "instructed the IT Department to stop the wire transfer as it was fraudulent." And then he said: "We will reset your login credential as they have been compromised. We will send you a text with your new login."
I then got this:
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I pressed 1 and waited. Got the call within 10 seconds. The guy was American (by his accent) and seemed to know where I was and said all the right things (recorded line, Chase fraud prevention, etc.) Had me fooled. Thought it was a genuine Chase employee.
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What would you do? I replied: No.
Immediately got this:
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Something strange happened to me yesterday.
Got this text message...
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