Tweetovi
- Tweetovi, trenutna stranica.
- Tweetovi i odgovori
- Medijski sadržaj
Blokirali ste korisnika/cu @NevinClimenhaga
Jeste li sigurni da želite vidjeti te tweetove? Time nećete deblokirati korisnika/cu @NevinClimenhaga
-
Prikvačeni tweet
My latest in
@aeonmag - what probabilities are and how to use them.#philosophy#probability#uncertainty#chance#statistics#science#reasoning#inference#thought#Bayesianhttps://aeon.co/ideas/the-concept-of-probability-is-not-as-simple-as-you-think …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Nevin Climenhaga proslijedio/la je Tweet
The Structure of Epistemic Probabilities http://dlvr.it/RP5rpG
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Nevin Climenhaga proslijedio/la je Tweet
This is how I’m starting all my e-mails from now onhttps://twitter.com/truesciphi/status/1198710585095065600 …
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Looking forward to Season 7 of The Crown so I can finally understand Brexit.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I only think in ordered triples, the first of which is everything I know, the second of which is a proposition I'm considering, and the third of which is a number between 0 and 1. Isn't everyone like this?https://twitter.com/DrLindseyFitz/status/1223923069070258177 …
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
They represent mind-independent relations of explanatory priority that help determine the values of probabilities.https://twitter.com/PHuenermund/status/1199053261594152961 …
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
(Me excited about this paper) --> (tagging
@lastpositivist@salonium@ewinsberg@SpencerJayCase@fitelson@phl43@MetaHumean@KevinZollman@cmlittlejohn@EPoe187@BenWinegard@nickchk@Scientific_Bird@enis_doko@CapturingChrist@PHuenermund@yudapearl@HarryDCrane@StatModeling)Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
My best attempt at a
#tweetstorm summarizing the paper:https://twitter.com/NevinClimenhaga/status/1224111452778192896 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
On my view probabilities are neither beliefs nor frequencies, but a priori relations between propositions. Explanatory relations, formalized in Bayes nets, help determine probabilistic relations. Clarity here can help us apply Bayes nets correctly.https://aeon.co/ideas/the-concept-of-probability-is-not-as-simple-as-you-think …
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Sometimes practitioners make philosophical errors. e.g., Pearl says in Causality (p. 2) that probability is subjective confidence: "probabilities encode degrees of belief about events in the world." But on pp. 83-85 (cancer/smoking case), probabilities are given by frequencies.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
My thesis is in keeping with applications of
#Bayesnets by researchers like@yudapearl. But AFAIK, none of them have explicitly defended the above view about the structure of probabilities. I hope my work can provide a philosophical underpinning to applications of#Bayesnets.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
What determines the values of basic probabilities remains a hard problem. But my view helps us evaluate candidate answers like the Principle of Indifference by guiding our application of them. (And many criticisms of Indifference turn on misguided applications of it.)
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Once we have the basic probabilities, we can ask how their values are determined. e.g., perhaps the principle of indifference helps determine them: we assign a flat distribution over a variable V conditional on its parents if they are indifferent over different values of V.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
(What about when we don't know what the correct
#Bayesnet is? We make basic probabilities relative to a network; and construct a higher-order network over possible first-order networks. This lets us do#causalinference; different first-order networks make different predictions.)Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I argue that we need to start by dividing the world into variables, and ordering these variables into a
#Bayesiannetwork by explanatory priority. The basic probabilities are then the probability of a variable conditional on its parents (= its direct influences).Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Carnap thought the unconditional probabilities of complete worlds were basic. This is a natural view to take from Kolmogorov's axiomatization of probability. But it doesn't fit well with inductive learning, ordinary probabilistic reasoning, causal interventions, etc.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
The probability of A given B -- P(A|B) -- is the degree to which B supports A. But where do probabilities come from? Some probabilities are derivative: their values depend on other probabilities. Others are basic: their values do not depend on other probabilities.https://twitter.com/NevinClimenhaga/status/1223043218402496512 …
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
My latest in Philosophical Studies: "The Structure of Epistemic Probabilities." I explore how explanatory priority relations (formalized in
#Bayesnets) help determine the values of probabilities.#probability#explanation#evidence#inference#philosophyhttps://philpapers.org/rec/CLITSO-13Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Nevin Climenhaga proslijedio/la je Tweet
What Skeptics Keep Getting Wrong and Why it's Important (Dr. Nevin Climenhaga)https://youtu.be/0tRm6tayai4
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I'll be going live with
@CapturingChrist in two hours (8:00 pm CST/9:00 pm EST) to talk about probability and God. Check it out!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tRm6tayai4 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
CORRECTION: The interview is at 8:00 pm CST, not EST. It's at 9:00 pm EST.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.