Opens profile photo
Follow
Click to Follow Neil_Irwin
Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios and author of Axios Macro newsletter. Author of "The Alchemists" and "How to Win"; Formerly: NYT, WashPost.
Washington, DCneilirwin.comJoined June 2010

Neil Irwin’s Tweets

Yields have now more than completely retraced their post-FOMC drops, both at the short and long end of the curve. Can't recall a single economic report that moved the bond market as much as Friday's jobs number.
Image
Image
1
19
Where's Beeks? Where in the hell is Beeks?
Quote Tweet
The existing short supply of Florida oranges is already driving orange juice prices up. And a poor harvest will further squeeze growers still struggling to recover from two hurricanes last year. trib.al/NBa55y4
7
50
Like, for 13 years I have been delivering economics news and analysis and occasional dumb jokes on this platform in exchange for building my reputation/reach. Who should be paying whom? I don't know! The past practice has been that no money changes hands.
6
Show this thread
I remain confused as to whether the strategy is "charge content producers for the chance to achieve reach" or "compensate content producers for making good content for Twitter dot com." Sounds like both at once?
Quote Tweet
Starting today, Twitter will share ad revenue with creators for ads that appear in their reply threads
Show this thread
2
11
Show this thread
The nowcast we get on Tuesday is likely to be *very* screwy — aggregate hours worked grew 15.7% annualized in January, and even if you assume 0% productivity growth that would mean 15.7% real GDP growth… (we obviously need another month of data)
Image
19
FWIW, the Powell event Tuesday at the Economic Club of DC is Q&A only — no prepared speech. That said, he is more than capable of sending a policy message in that format. I saw it up close in January 2019.
9
Presumably this wild payrolls number involves statistical noise or mismeasurement. But the overall narrative of "extremely robust job market" is supported by establishment and household surveys, claims, JOLTS, anecdata. Just no question about the fundamental labor market story.
1
17
I think this is right.
Quote Tweet
Thinking like an oddsmaker more than my own view of things, if markets came into the year pricing odds of a 2023 recession at 50%, it should probably be more like 15-20% now but increasing odds of a 2024 recession.
7
18
It's not like the tech/media layoffs aren't evident in the jobs report; the information sector lost 5k jobs, with declines in publishing, broadcasting, and computing infrastructure/data/processing/web hosting. It's just that 5k isn't a hill of beans in an economy with 155m jobs.
6
65
A couple of Fed folks have pointed to recent declines in temporary help employment as a leading indicator of labor market softening. The sector added 26k jobs in January.
27
I'm starting to think — stay with me here — that the tech and media sectors are not indicative of the labor market as a whole.
31
1,269
After population adjustments, household survey showing unchanged labor force participation and employment-to-population ratio.
Image
14
Average hourly earnings +0.3%, year-over-year +4.4%. In line with expectations, but not decelerating as you would want to see in a purely dovish story.
2
10
Five minutes to go! Forecast for January jobs report: +190k payrolls, unemployment rate ticking up to 3.6%, +0.3% average hourly earnings growth.
9
13
Whoa! Roberto Perli, one of the best Fed analysts, is joining the New York Fed as head of SOMA desk — the unit that carries out U.S. monetary policy.
Image
15
Fantastic thread and piece.
Quote Tweet
America's chick situation offers up some important insights about the economy. A thread. (1/) nytimes.com/2023/02/02/bus
Show this thread
Image
7
Takeaways from Chair Powell: - Fed doesn't want to prematurely declare victory - But disinflationary process has started - We're talking "a couple more" rate increases - No expected 2023 cuts - Soft landing = base case - Raise the debt ceiling!
14
238
Bond market hearing Chair Powell as dovish. Note that the rates plunge started not at the FOMC statement (14:00) or Powell initial prepared statement (14:30) but at about 14:38.
Image
1
10
Show this thread
Chair Powell following the script of 2013 Governor Powell: "I wonder, on a number of grounds, whether it is wise for us to be disclosing the things we will and won't do... a month and half before the next debt ceiling crisis"
Quote Tweet
Powell avoids any detailed discussion of what Fed would do in a debt ceiling breach scenario, just saying that raising the ceiling is the only path forward. I wrote today about how the Fed will inevitably be in the thick of it if there is a breach. axios.com/2023/02/01/fed
1
10
Fed hikes rates a quarter point, keeps language that "ongoing increases" will be appropriate, implying at least two more rate hikes. No pause signal here.
1
54
Remember the "labor market softening will occur through the number of openings falling" narrative? Well, um, the JOLTS are not cooperating. Openings +572k in December.
13