Seems realistic at this point
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Replying to @great_old_ones_ @NegarestaniReza
City and region wide quarantines are already creating the effect of internal closed borders, which may be sufficient for a recession anyway due to supply chain disruption and demand collapsing
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Replying to @NicolasDVillar1 @great_old_ones_
East Asia at this point is almost a goner. Pharmaceuticals, electronics and auto-industry will be the first victims.
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Replying to @NegarestaniReza @great_old_ones_
US consumers and manufacturers depend heavily on imports from east Asia. As soon as we see impact on US labor market its game over for global economy
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Replying to @NicolasDVillar1 @great_old_ones_
I was talking to friends, they too think this is the end of this phase of globalization.
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Replying to @NegarestaniReza @NicolasDVillar1
It's definitely the perfect storm: strong nationalists sentiments already ingrained in the public discourse, widespread distrust of globalization, a tenacious virus.
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Replying to @great_old_ones_ @NicolasDVillar1
I was reading the news about the new wave of racism in Japan, South Korea and Canada. The situation is very much Plague Inc. at this point.
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Replying to @NegarestaniReza @great_old_ones_
Ironic then that it might be the same force that propels the left to power in the US. Trump is depending on good economy for reelection.
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Replying to @NicolasDVillar1 @great_old_ones_
My pessimist side is that the economic blow won't be delivered until he is elected for the second term.
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Replying to @NegarestaniReza @great_old_ones_
Nicolas D Villarreal Retweeted
Better not! I got money riding on this shit! https://twitter.com/NicolasDVillar1/status/1231587367770886146?s=19 …
Nicolas D Villarreal added,
This Tweet is unavailable.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
My stake is higher: I haven't had one trip outside of the US out of fear since he was elected.
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Replying to @NegarestaniReza @great_old_ones_
There are reasons to believe blow will hit sooner rather than later. Spiking contraction in job openings q4 2019 is big one.
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