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Profil korisnika/ce NathanJRobinson
Nathan J Robinson
Nathan J Robinson
Nathan J Robinson
@NathanJRobinson

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Nathan J Robinson

@NathanJRobinson

Editor of @CurAffairs, political columnist for the @guardian I don't check this account much, sorry for failures to reply. http://nathanjrobinson.com 

New Orleans, LA
currentaffairs.org
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    Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
    • Prijavi Tweet

    IMPORTANT: If you do not want Joe Biden to get the nomination, we need to do everything possible in the next 48 hours to get people NOT to vote for Elizabeth Warren in Iowa. By not unifying behind Sanders, the progressive left is walking into a buzzsaw that will destroy us.

    07:37 - 1. velj 2020.
    • 807 proslijeđenih tweetova
    • 5.671 oznaka „sviđa mi se”
    • Natalie James Jackie Treehorn Dave Schaefer Dina Rodrigues Eric Bacon 🎪🏳️‍🌈ʟᴏᴋɪ🎭🛡️ hunter biden's owl hallucination We’re Better Than That Saint Bernard
    807 proslijeđenih tweetova 5.671 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
      1. Novi razgovor
      2. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Have a look at where things stand right now in the Iowa polls. Sanders is leading Biden by a hair. Warren is in 4th place, as she is in New Hampshire, a position reflected in her poor fundraising. Warren is not going to win. But her candidacy can still destroy Bernie.pic.twitter.com/GSZyw0ox0Z

        18 replies 124 proslijeđena tweeta 927 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      3. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Notice from the current polls that even a small shift of Warren voters to Sanders would be extremely helpful in opening up a solid lead over Biden. If there is not a progressive victory in Iowa, it will be because there were still people voting for Warren.

        5 replies 93 proslijeđena tweeta 727 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      4. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        But things are actually far more perilous than that, because of the weird structure of the Iowa caucuses. There are two rounds and if a candidate doesn't get 15 percent in the first, their voters can switch to a second candidate.pic.twitter.com/vqD2UjND72

        1 reply 45 proslijeđenih tweetova 362 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      5. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Let's consider a precinct in which the 1st vote broke down exactly according to the current polling. Warren would fall below 15 percent. Since Sanders is the most common 2nd choice of Warren voters, he would pick up her votes. Buttigieg, however, would keep his for the 2nd round.

        31 proslijeđeni tweet 259 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      6. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        This situation is good for Bernie: the centrist vote is split between Buttigieg and Biden, while he gets the progressive vote. But what if there is just a slight difference? Buttigieg drops a point and Warren goes up a point? Then it's a calamity.

        1 reply 33 proslijeđena tweeta 291 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      7. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        In the 2nd round, Warren keeps her voters. Buttigieg's voters are released and mostly go to Biden. Biden also gets Klobuchar's voters. So Biden resoundingly crushes Bernie in this precinct, because the progressive vote was split but the centrist vote ended up united.

        5 replies 33 proslijeđena tweeta 326 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      8. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Every precinct that Warren cracks 15% in is horrible news for Bernie. But also: we don't want Pete Buttigieg dropping below 15%. If you vote for Warren, you are voting for Biden. Period. If you're wearing a Warren shirt, it really says "Biden."

        7 replies 149 proslijeđenih tweetova 691 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      9. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        This needs to be made clear to every person considering supporting Warren. If their 2nd choice is Sanders, they need to vote for Sanders. Dave Weigel recently asked what Sanders' voters preferred order of results was. A disturbing number of Sanders people want Warren #2.pic.twitter.com/d9dC6NlJu9

        1 reply 51 proslijeđeni tweet 335 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      10. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        They are not thinking about how boosting Elizabeth Warren is actually going to play out. Her candidacy is destroying Sanders' chances of finishing off Biden. If you don't want Joe to win, vote Bernie. Every time someone votes for Warren, Biden's smile grows another inch widerpic.twitter.com/glgn0ozSTL

        5 replies 62 proslijeđena tweeta 396 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      11. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        What's more, let's not keep attacking Pete. We do NOT want Pete falling too low. He's been dropping. We need that to stop. Tell Pete supporters nice things. Give them a lift to the caucus. Do the dance with them. Pete is not going to win but his presence helps us.

        5 replies 31 proslijeđeni tweet 352 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      12. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Some people think that it doesn't matter how the vote is apportioned between Sanders and Warren, as long as together, they do well. This is delusional. If Joe Biden comes out of Iowa ahead, he gains unstoppable "momentum"

        6 replies 34 proslijeđena tweeta 287 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      13. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        What IS "momentum"? Momentum means: the news media stops running stories about how Bernie might win and starts talking about Joe's reclaiming of frontrunner status. People start endorsing him who had hesitated waiting to see if he'd turn out a dud. Probably including labor unions

        1 reply 27 proslijeđenih tweetova 272 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      14. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        If Joe wins Iowa, it's VERY bad for Bernie. And the #1 thing keeping Bernie from pulling way ahead is that Elizabeth Warren is continuing to peel off people who would otherwise support him. If Warren's doomed candidacy takes Sanders down with it, how will you feel?

        45 proslijeđenih tweetova 315 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      15. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        You might think, "Oh, well, Joe's 'momentum' can be overcome. Warren and Sanders together will have more delegates." This is important: there is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO THINK ELIZABETH WARREN WILL ULTIMATELY JOIN WITH BERNIE SANDERS.

        5 replies 64 proslijeđena tweeta 437 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      16. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        She didn't endorse him in 2016. She tried to torpedo his campaign this time with a damaging allegation. Even if all we assume is that her politics are "halfway" between Bernie and Biden, that still means she could side with Joe if he's the clear frontrunner.

        41 proslijeđeni tweet 392 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      17. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        There will be party pressure for her to do so, too. And she'll be offered inducements like the VP slot. Given that she has shown herself to be soft on Biden (declining to attack him hard on bankruptcy) and harsh on Bernie (accusing him of sexism), why think she's with Bernie?

        38 proslijeđenih tweetova 341 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      18. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        I talk more about this here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2020/01/thinking-about-the-democratic-primary … Really it makes it SO frustrating that "progressive" magazines like @inthesetimesmag and @thenation have promoted the idea we can support "both" and just divide our votes.pic.twitter.com/flvOzGSs8r

        6 replies 42 proslijeđena tweeta 262 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      19. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        If you are a Warren supporter, the question you need to ask is: is the difference between Warren and Sanders SO GREAT in Warren's favor that it's worth throwing away our shot at a robust progressive agenda? On climate change? On healthcare? We cannot afford Joe Biden.

        14 replies 122 proslijeđena tweeta 485 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      20. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        All of this is solely about how we win. I am assuming we share values. I am not critiquing Warren on her merits even though I have done so before. We gave her a chance. But the "progressive primary" has been run, and she lost. We HAVE to rally behind Sanders.

        50 proslijeđenih tweetova 316 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      21. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        We have a very short amount of time. The Iowa caucuses are on Monday. We have got to get everyone behind Sanders. Plead with people: they can LIKE Warren, but they shouldn't VOTE for her. It's Nader in FL again.

        10 replies 38 proslijeđenih tweetova 267 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      22. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        also one tiny point because I know pedantic election nerds will send me messages otherwise: I know I am talking about how the vote breaks down at individual caucus sites rather than in the statewide apportionment of delegates

        22 proslijeđena tweeta 181 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      23. Nathan J Robinson‏ @NathanJRobinson 1. velj
        • Prijavi Tweet

        I also know that I am making big oversimplifications about people's 2nd choices. Not all the Buttigieg people go to Biden and not all the Warren people to Sanders. But these are tendencies, and the more prominent these tendencies end up being, the worse it is for us.

        6 replies 21 proslijeđeni tweet 187 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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