@Nate_Cohn Mississippi looks like a voter suppression story waiting to be reported in detail.
Turnout change since 2012 in 100% rpt counties. Blue is higher. Orange is lower. Big drop in black belt, some northern rural white areaspic.twitter.com/UAtAWZhlRX
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@nlanc@Nate_Cohn Law exactly the same. Blacks less motivated to vote when 1st AA nominee/President not in ticket. There's your story. -
@JoPiercy@nlanc@Nate_Cohn bull blacks vote regardless it was white voters who put donald over -
@NotStuckon@JoPiercy@nlanc@Nate_Cohn numbers say otherwise. In rust belt Hillary lost ground to Obama with Blacks and White non college. -
@colmanjduffy@JoPiercy@nlanc@Nate_Cohn nope white women voted trump in. Blacks has always voted Democratic regardless if it was Obama. -
@NotStuckon@JoPiercy@nlanc@Nate_Cohn white vote 2012 59-39 republican. white vote 2016 57-37 republican. Notice both a margin of 20.
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@Nate_Cohn Who cares now? The election is over and polls and data were useless and wrong. -
@Undetermined_US@Nate_Cohn Gotta figure out who to blame (spoiler-alert: it was Hillary)
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@Nate_Cohn I hate to ask this, but can you do a multidimensional graph where hue=shift, and darkness=population? Would be more edifying. -
@Nate_Cohn Actually, it might strictly be better to do an an absolute shift, not a proportional one. -
@singleentente@Nate_Cohn Yeah, because some places take 2 cycles to purge inactive/dead voters. Its possible the drop in Ohio is just a ... -
@singleentente@Nate_Cohn ... fall in population, after all Ohio is fast losing population. -
@rohitguptahpf@Nate_Cohn That would be an interesting turn, though the polling error wasn't deviant from the nat'l, so maybe normal trends?
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@Nate_Cohn Breaking News! Pollsters will now allegedly be using a new, more accurate system to predict racespic.twitter.com/J1CzqD7KhL
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@Nate_Cohn Overlay that with voter suppression laws -
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@Nate_Cohn Prob: poll aggregators don't do turnout prediction. That's hidden inside polls' likely-voter models. Those models were wrong. -
@Nate_Cohn can all pollsters and pundits apologize as a collective whole or do I have to shit on your faces -
@Nate_Cohn sleep well -
@Nate_Cohn Any way to show voter suppression -- number of voters purged from rolls? some other metric? -
@Nate_Cohn Interesting. That was more mixed than I expected.
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