The polls have closed in California's gubernatorial recall election.
NYT results here >>>
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Expect Newsom to take an early lead, as the disproportionately Democratic early mail votes will be the first counted.
If the 2020 election is any indication, the 'no' vote could start out 5 pts higher than the ultimate result.
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The exits show "no" up by around 18 points or so.
If so, those early Newsom votes may be enough to yield an early call
cnn.com/election/2021/
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Our first result: "no" at 72 percent in Napa.
Newsom won 65 percent of the vote in Napa in 2018, when he won 62 percent statewide, so this is a strong showing for him in the early going--even considering that the early mail votes were expected to be strong for him
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We have results from four counties now, and so far Newsom's running 5 points ahead of his 2018 showing. If that holds statewide, it would give him around 67 percent of this first wave of ballots
(and fwiw, Biden ran about 5 points ahead of his final result in the early 2020 vote)
We now have 13 counties with early vote, and "no" is at 65% of the vote, v. 59 percent for Newsom in 2018. And so far, these tallies represent 69 percent of 2018 turnout levels
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If, hypothetically, turnout matches 2018 levels, then "yes" will need 85% of what's left to win.
Obviously a much higher turnout can nudge that number down, but...
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