So let's talk about our needles. Florida was easy, as you can see. What about NC and GA?pic.twitter.com/5Oik3YzJTq
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I can make some related subpoints: we don't think Biden crushed it, compared to our expectations, in well-educated parts of Florida. Maybe that won't hold up in the GA suburbs, and he can still crush it there. Just an example.
The point is that the needle does assume that these demographic shifts cross statelines, and it's at least conceivable that they don't. Given that FL was first and very bad for Biden, it could prove to be too tough on him elsewhere
Please comment on the massive polling error your model suggests
Fulton County GA mail in ballots, yo.
Well shit
Does that explain the differences between NYT and Fox News?
Not sure I follow you. If Biden is underperforming with Latinos universally, why would that make him more likely to win GA?
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