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Nate_Cohn's profile
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
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@Nate_Cohn

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Nate CohnVerified account

@Nate_Cohn

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/…
Joined January 2012

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    1. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 3 Nov 2020

      So let's talk about our needles. Florida was easy, as you can see. What about NC and GA?pic.twitter.com/5Oik3YzJTq

      51 replies 33 retweets 332 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 3 Nov 2020

      At the moment we've got Trump favored in Georgia by 4 and North Carolina by about a point. If you look at the results by method, you can see why: the eday vote is great for Trump and that's what's left in NC, in particular https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc …pic.twitter.com/8z4iIEZ9pp

      31 replies 104 retweets 348 likes
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      Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 3 Nov 2020

      There are a few things I pause at right now, though. One is that all three states are in the same model. We control for state and voting method. Does the flood of results in Florida bias us a bit in NC/GA, especially in Latino areas? I think that's at least possible in GA burbs

      6:17 PM - 3 Nov 2020
      • 40 Retweets
      • 503 Likes
      • Matt de urn Noodle DreamDestroyer Evelyn heidi (e/o) elizabeth 🇮🇹🇪🇺💉💉💉 Jordan Taylor Fumiya Uchikoshi Leslie Caughell
      38 replies 40 retweets 503 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 3 Nov 2020

          I can make some related subpoints: we don't think Biden crushed it, compared to our expectations, in well-educated parts of Florida. Maybe that won't hold up in the GA suburbs, and he can still crush it there. Just an example.

          15 replies 27 retweets 352 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 3 Nov 2020

          The point is that the needle does assume that these demographic shifts cross statelines, and it's at least conceivable that they don't. Given that FL was first and very bad for Biden, it could prove to be too tough on him elsewhere

          52 replies 45 retweets 483 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. Kenny‏ @Kenny28890311 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          🤔

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. TNT‏ @Trippinteef 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Please comment on the massive polling error your model suggests

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Toskaliku‏ @Theo71187 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @ItsOnlyJk @Nate_Cohn

          No

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. 𝔸𝔹  🐐  🚲‏ @ab_cabra 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Fulton County GA mail in ballots, yo.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Just Floating Around‏ @markwheeler42 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Well shit

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Geoffrey Gund‏ @geeoffgoond 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Does that explain the differences between NYT and Fox News?

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Snapdragon11112‏ @snapdragon11112 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Not sure I follow you. If Biden is underperforming with Latinos universally, why would that make him more likely to win GA?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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