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Nate_Cohn's profile
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
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@Nate_Cohn

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Nate CohnVerified account

@Nate_Cohn

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/…
Joined January 2012

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    1. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

      Biden maintains a lead in Wisconsin and Trump's three best pick-up opportunities, among likely voters MN: Biden 50, Trump 41 NH: Biden 45, Trump 42 NV: Biden 46, Trump 42 WI: Biden 48, Trump 43https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-wisconsin-minnesota.html …

      448 replies 1,122 retweets 3,437 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

      The polls suggest that a lot of the Trump law and order pivot succeeded... but with a big catch. --Voters split on whether law and order > COVID to their vote --They say Biden *supports* defunding the police --They say Biden hasn't done enough to condemn violent riots, by a lot

      52 replies 139 retweets 508 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

      The big catch: despite all of that, Trump still doesn't really even lead on average on law and order or violent crime. That's probably in part because they think Biden's better at unifying the country, handling protests, and think Trump encourages violence

      18 replies 157 retweets 894 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

      Taken together, Biden's up 6 across the four states--which were about 1.2 points right of the country in '16. So I'd say it's basically in line with the national polling, which currently shows Biden ~ +7.5

      7 replies 128 retweets 670 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

      State by state, MN/WI/NV were all within 1 or 2 points of what I would have guessed at the outset. NH is quite a bit better for Trump than I would have guessed, and there are three main possibilities worth considering

      8 replies 41 retweets 329 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

      One is that it's just right, and NH is tougher than assumed. It's hard to say, given the absence of serious polling there. I'd note the last poll was Biden+8... but wasn't weighted by education. This poll would have shown Biden+7 without education weights

      12 replies 50 retweets 313 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

      Another possibility is that it's noise. This is a small sample at N=450, and there's no way around losing precision at that point, even though we have decent party variables. Maybe if we polled it again, the exact same way today, we'd show a number that came closer to our prior.

      5:19 AM - 12 Sep 2020
      • 37 Retweets
      • 313 Likes
      • Dine Alone Matt Aaron SenecaTrust Sean Ray the Horror Fan digidad - YOU YES YOU THE MASK GOES OVER YOUR NOSE eding42 Natasha Thonse Damodar Samani Nadiguthu Austin Temple Arrrrrrgh Cat!
      7 replies 37 retweets 313 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

          The third possibility is that it's not noise, exactly, but a reflection of some real difficulties. As I said last night, we really struggled there; the voter file was surprisingly bad. And it's our first time polling there--the last top battleground where we've never done a poll

          7 replies 33 retweets 287 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

          I'm reminded of our Michigan poll last October, where we had some similar challenges on our first swing through, without the benefit of knowing just how the file would play out. It's possible that a more tailored design would yield better results than the default approach

          8 replies 23 retweets 232 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

          As an aside, NH is Trump's worst state by recalled 2016 vote choice--it's a Clinton/Trump tie there, like IRL. Another reminder that this metric may not be as clear of a way to judge whether a poll is 'good' or 'bad' for a candidate as you might assume.

          4 replies 23 retweets 202 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

          Nate Cohn Retweeted Lynchian Reality

          Only 6% are undecided across the four states, on average, the rest who aren't supporting a major party candidate say they're voting for a listed minor party candidate or said someone else/won't vote.https://twitter.com/lynchianreality/status/1304757265463992321?s=20 …

          Nate Cohn added,

          Lynchian Reality @lynchianreality
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn
          Why don’t you push undecideds in the polls?
          16 replies 28 retweets 210 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

          Nate Cohn Retweeted Ben Yelin

          NH primary was on Tuesday, the day we went into the field. Would have done it otherwise.https://twitter.com/byelin/status/1304763869206925312?s=20 …

          Nate Cohn added,

          Ben Yelin @byelin
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn
          No NH Senate numbers?
          4 replies 13 retweets 144 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

          As an aside, we had Smith+9 in MN -- the same as the presidential race, but with big underlying, regional differences. Biden better in the MSP metro; Smith running better in rural areas. A bit of downballot reversion to something more like the traditional MN map, as is typical

          6 replies 32 retweets 206 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

          Nate Cohn Retweeted Ishmael

          Yeah, I think there are actually two flips there. MIL city v burbs; North v. East. Thanks for pointing out; will try nd correct.https://twitter.com/JustForReading9/status/1304759856050601984?s=20 …

          Nate Cohn added,

          Ishmael @JustForReading9
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn
          Have you mixed up Milwaukee City and Milwaukee Suburbs in the cross-tabs? You have Biden up massively in the suburbs while slightly down in the city itself, which seems weird unless the suburbs aren't actually the WOW counties https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/crosstabs-MN-NH-NV-WI.pdf/80f8e4634fe6f880/full.pdf … pic.twitter.com/M6WzXVue1X
          6 replies 17 retweets 126 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Sep 12

          If you prefer to see it right rather than do the flips in your head (1 is biden; 2 trump)pic.twitter.com/UvqBWsPtQ0

          20 replies 19 retweets 115 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation
        1. Joel Barciauskas‏ @JoelBarciauskas Sep 12
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Why are there so many undecideds compared to other polls?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Grudgie the Whale‏ @grudging1 Sep 12
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          That NH sample is only 20% the size of the most recent U of NH poll (which was end of July Biden+13)

          0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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