Biden maintains a lead in Wisconsin and Trump's three best pick-up opportunities, among likely voters MN: Biden 50, Trump 41 NH: Biden 45, Trump 42 NV: Biden 46, Trump 42 WI: Biden 48, Trump 43https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-wisconsin-minnesota.html …
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The third possibility is that it's not noise, exactly, but a reflection of some real difficulties. As I said last night, we really struggled there; the voter file was surprisingly bad. And it's our first time polling there--the last top battleground where we've never done a poll
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I'm reminded of our Michigan poll last October, where we had some similar challenges on our first swing through, without the benefit of knowing just how the file would play out. It's possible that a more tailored design would yield better results than the default approach
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As an aside, NH is Trump's worst state by recalled 2016 vote choice--it's a Clinton/Trump tie there, like IRL. Another reminder that this metric may not be as clear of a way to judge whether a poll is 'good' or 'bad' for a candidate as you might assume.
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Only 6% are undecided across the four states, on average, the rest who aren't supporting a major party candidate say they're voting for a listed minor party candidate or said someone else/won't vote.https://twitter.com/lynchianreality/status/1304757265463992321?s=20 …
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NH primary was on Tuesday, the day we went into the field. Would have done it otherwise.https://twitter.com/byelin/status/1304763869206925312?s=20 …
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As an aside, we had Smith+9 in MN -- the same as the presidential race, but with big underlying, regional differences. Biden better in the MSP metro; Smith running better in rural areas. A bit of downballot reversion to something more like the traditional MN map, as is typical
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Yeah, I think there are actually two flips there. MIL city v burbs; North v. East. Thanks for pointing out; will try nd correct.https://twitter.com/JustForReading9/status/1304759856050601984?s=20 …
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If you prefer to see it right rather than do the flips in your head (1 is biden; 2 trump)pic.twitter.com/UvqBWsPtQ0
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End of conversation
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Why are there so many undecideds compared to other polls?
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That NH sample is only 20% the size of the most recent U of NH poll (which was end of July Biden+13)
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