One interesting trend in recent polls is that Biden seems to be doing a bit better among over 65, and worse among under 30. I think some of it is probably attributable to this:https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1205487298445533189?lang=en …
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There are a few polls that take steps to help this--Selzer, Times/Siena, at least some polls fielded by SSRS. But most others, including very good polls like Monmouth or ABC/Post, don't weight on the interaction between age and gender, and you get this bias in the age crosstabs
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To test this out, I went and pulled the most recent Monmouth data and tested two very simple sets weights: race, edu, age, sex vs. race, edu, age-x-sex. (cc
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The difference on the topline was non-existent (a net-.03% shift). But the tabs do shift a bit. Biden's lead grows by nearly 4 points among voters under age 35 if you use the interaction between age x sex, while Trump's lead grows by over 2 points among voters over age 65
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There's essentially no difference on the topline for RVs, but it does make somewhat more of a difference in terms of likely voters. Biden's lead among those who are "almost certain" to vote shrinks by 0.5 pts if you weight by the interaction
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Why is this? I know you're not a psychologist but do you have any data-based explanation
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Or people under 30 aren’t too fond of Biden.
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young actual voters are overwhelmingly male? Or young respondents are?
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Respondents
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If so, why was Trump doing so well with over 65 group for most of last year?
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