Well, Dems probably won non-voters in '16 in all of these states. On the other hand, I don't really see signs that the black turnout rate is poised to increase more than the rest of the electorate. If anything, I might argue the oppositehttps://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1217298315081064448?s=20 …
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The Hispanic share of the electorate, on the other hand, seems poised to increase. But the states where that helps Dems most tend to be the states where Clinton was farther from victory
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All of this is broadly consistent with what happened in '18, when the black share of the electorate fell in the Midwest battlegrounds (compared to both 14/16), while the Hispanic turnout, let alone share of the electorate, was quite high by midterm standards
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Seems you and cilizza must be best , no?
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I think that depends on who the VP nominee is
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Would be curious to hear about why.
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Have you heard a candidate that actually talked about black issues?
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Which means Democrats would have a huge mountain to climb in the Midwest swing states. I don't know why stimulating black turnout wasn't the number one issue in the Dem primary, instead of who could throw more money at a healthcare plan.
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It's not that they're not turning out, just that the Klan GOP are throwing out their votes like in Georgia and other Jim Crow states.
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This is a very important point because the black vote was significantly more pro-Dem than other racial groups. In fact, in 2016, Hispanic, Asian and other voted for Dems at similar or lower rates as non-college whites voted for the GOP.
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In Georgia, Texas, and Florida. No
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