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Nate_Cohn's profile
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
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@Nate_Cohn

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Nate CohnVerified account

@Nate_Cohn

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/…
Joined January 2012

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    1. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jan 2020

      Nate Cohn Retweeted Dave Wasserman

      Well, Dems probably won non-voters in '16 in all of these states. On the other hand, I don't really see signs that the black turnout rate is poised to increase more than the rest of the electorate. If anything, I might argue the oppositehttps://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1217298315081064448?s=20 …

      Nate Cohn added,

      Dave WassermanVerified account @Redistrict
      My estimates of eligible citizens who *didn't* vote in 2016, non-whites vs. whites w/o college degrees (in thousands): AZ: 904 / 684 GA: 1,303 / 1,172 TX: 4,274 / 2,665 ------- FL: 2,565 / 2,566 MI: 643 / 1,564 MN: 259 / 786 NC: 834 / 1,105 PA: 695 / 2,290 WI: 306 / 819
      Show this thread
      12 replies 17 retweets 50 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jan 2020

      To be a little more direct about what that means: I think there's a real case that the the black share of the electorate could drop even more in 2020 in some of these states

      6:29 AM - 15 Jan 2020
      • 8 Retweets
      • 30 Likes
      • Dude Smuggins Sharer of scary COVID news and cat videos Nathaniel Zhang Andrü🌌 Jakub Gałka Luiz Rodrigues PZ Jacob Alperin-Sheriff 🐵 Xenocrypt
      9 replies 8 retweets 30 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jan 2020

          The Hispanic share of the electorate, on the other hand, seems poised to increase. But the states where that helps Dems most tend to be the states where Clinton was farther from victory

          5 replies 7 retweets 32 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jan 2020

          All of this is broadly consistent with what happened in '18, when the black share of the electorate fell in the Midwest battlegrounds (compared to both 14/16), while the Hispanic turnout, let alone share of the electorate, was quite high by midterm standards

          6 replies 8 retweets 26 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. tellthetruth‏ @martinhopkins39 15 Jan 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Seems you and cilizza must be best , no?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Tom‏ @ThosChamberlain 15 Jan 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          I think that depends on who the VP nominee is

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. David Watkins‏ @djw172 15 Jan 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Would be curious to hear about why.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Dan‏ @Dan_hahabye 15 Jan 2020
          Replying to @djw172 @Nate_Cohn

          Have you heard a candidate that actually talked about black issues?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Darren Kaplan‏ @DarrenKaplan 15 Jan 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Which means Democrats would have a huge mountain to climb in the Midwest swing states. I don't know why stimulating black turnout wasn't the number one issue in the Dem primary, instead of who could throw more money at a healthcare plan.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. ne'er-do-well‏ @merkin_muffly 15 Jan 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          It's not that they're not turning out, just that the Klan GOP are throwing out their votes like in Georgia and other Jim Crow states.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. The Captain's Blog‏ @williamnyy23 15 Jan 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          This is a very important point because the black vote was significantly more pro-Dem than other racial groups. In fact, in 2016, Hispanic, Asian and other voted for Dems at similar or lower rates as non-college whites voted for the GOP.

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        1. Dan‏ @Dan_hahabye 15 Jan 2020
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          In Georgia, Texas, and Florida. No

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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