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Nate_Cohn's profile
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
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@Nate_Cohn

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Nate CohnVerified account

@Nate_Cohn

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/…
Joined January 2012

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    1. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

      I think the Canadian election result is pretty interesting, and useful to think about in the context of the various American debates over the Electoral College / popular vote / US House

      77 replies 179 retweets 653 likes
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    2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

      As you may know, Trudeau was reelected and fairly comfortably. But it appears the conservatives won the most votes, reversing what we've seen for the center-left in the United States (and the UK on Brexit, if it had been by constituency rather than popular vote)

      49 replies 59 retweets 304 likes
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    3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

      So what happened? One big part is that conservatives are dominant--truly dominant--in Albert and Sask., where they win 2/3 of the vote and beat the Liberals by a huge margin.

      20 replies 51 retweets 262 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

      On the other hand, the left is split between the Greens, NDP and Liberals, denying the Liberals the opportunity to run up the score in the sort of places where they might have run-up the score in a one-on-one race

      29 replies 58 retweets 361 likes
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    5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

      Leaving the causes aside for a second, the end result is that the conservatives wind up more votes in landslide margins. Liberals would win a hypothetical Canadian Electoral College vote with narrower wins in ON/QU and elsewhere.

      6 replies 31 retweets 188 likes
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    6. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

      conservatives wind up *wasting

      1 reply 5 retweets 51 likes
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    7. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

      This is the reverse of what we see in the US House at the district-level, where Dems runup the score in the cities. It's not really like what we see in the Electoral College, where both Democrats and the GOP waste fairly equal numbers in say CA v. strong red states

      8 replies 36 retweets 197 likes
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      Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

      This is basically the scenario that Electoral College defenders cite to defend a winner-take-all system: the possibility that one region could basically decide the result for the rest of the country. Again, that's not what we've had in the US, but here it plays out IRL

      9:51 AM - 22 Oct 2019
      • 36 Retweets
      • 200 Likes
      • my little jackal Ceacilius Est In Horto Jason 👻 brown Keigh Cozzolino76 nyxia- Leo Rodriguez Officer Zo David I.W.
      17 replies 36 retweets 200 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

          Anyway, IMO the Electoral College is not really the natural way of addressing the 'regionalism' concern. It is possible to take regionalism seriously and think the E.C. has some serious issues, by essentially introducing unnecessary noise/luck into close elections

          15 replies 35 retweets 206 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

          But for those (presumably mainly liberals) who don't really give any credit to the regionalism argument on behalf of the E.C., it is worth mulling how they would feel about a one-sided vote in Alberta/Sask. basically overruling the country

          29 replies 42 retweets 205 likes
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        4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

          Or a not impossible future in the US, where Dems win the big coastal states (even including TX/FL/GA) but lose a high-turnout, white, old, working class American interior by a huge margins

          32 replies 24 retweets 155 likes
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        5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 22 Oct 2019

          And lol at my replies. Folks, there's nothing about seeing the other side's arguments playing out that means you're wrong or that you have to change your views. You can understand both sides, imagine the other side, and continue to be 100% convinced in a national vote. It's fine

          41 replies 15 retweets 272 likes
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        6. End of conversation
        1. Lou Rovegno‏ @LouRovegno 22 Oct 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Isn't the real lesson (considering the left coalition got way more votes) that ranked choice is incredibly important in a many-party, winner-take-all system?

          0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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        1. Jacob‏ @Apprentice57 22 Oct 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          I'm confused Nate, I'm looking at a Canadian election map and it looks like the liberals have a pretty diverse set of seats, with large rural seats in the northwest and east of Canada. Certainly their support atrophied in central Canada, but that seems very similar to US dems.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Sailor Moon Frye‏ @drag0nofmothers 22 Oct 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          I hate this. Regional is important for balancing representation in legislature, e.g. But in a general election we DO NOT vote as states. One human should equal one vote. Voices from certain regions should not be weighted, & voices should not be drowned by their state's culture.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Vincent LaBarge‏ @VincentLaBarge 22 Oct 2019
          Replying to @drag0nofmothers @Nate_Cohn

          Why should each vote have the same weight no matter what? The creators of the Parliamentary form of government did not believe that was necessary. The creators of the US constitution also did not believe it was necessary. Why do YOU believe it's necessary?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Fa - Auntie‏ @electodelecto 22 Oct 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Most of the provinces did not support the Cons. We have 2 strong pockets of climate change deniers -65% of our country voted to protect equality, the environment and our social systems. This was not a small group choosing the government it was a landslide against intolerance.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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