My 'interactions' are full of people asserting things like: there are no swing voters; the only thing that changed in 2018 is turnout, Democrats can't and haven't won over any Trump voters. And whatever you think of the optimal strategy for Democrats, this is all facially untrue
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And honestly, I can't tell you the case to the contrary. I do think there's a case that Clinton *might* have *barely* won with a 2012 turnout, though fallen far short of Obama in key states. But I'm not aware of a serious case for 'turnout explains all,' or anything like it
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In our NC09 poll, for instance, the *same* people were Trump+11 approval and R+0.5 in the horse race.
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In our final polls of GA06, IL14, CA48 over the last days of the race, the sample was R+6 or more in all. Dems led in all, and ultimately won. Dems had huge inroads with past GOP voters.
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Go on...listening
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There are definitely swing voters, but the traditional ones are only a few %. Most swing voters aren't in the "middle". Instead, they're at the ends of the horseshoe, where the crazies go between Bernie, Trump, Jill Stein, Yang, etc..
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A few percent is basically enough to swing every Presidential election in the last 30 years.
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Say more.
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@RachelBitecofer is all over this angle.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Also, isn't it just math? Inspiring a new voter gets you +1 votes, but flipping a swing voter gets you +2.
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Inspiring a new voter gets you a new vote for Democrats downticket. Flipping an existing swing voter does not. Also, there are far more non-voters than there are flippable swing voters.
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