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Nate_Cohn's profile
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
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@Nate_Cohn

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Nate CohnVerified account

@Nate_Cohn

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/…
Joined January 2012

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    Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Sep 2019

    I think the salience of "persuasion" in elections--whether voters flipping is a major force explaining variance in election results--might be the single area where I most completely disagree with the conventional wisdom on Twitter, or at least what the CW looks like to me

    1:57 PM - 10 Sep 2019
    • 73 Retweets
    • 328 Likes
    • Noumenon ∞ Dmitri Mehlhorn Texas News Adam Zuckerman Wystan Getz Erik Paulson GIANT918 Robert Barnes
    28 replies 73 retweets 328 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Sep 2019

        My 'interactions' are full of people asserting things like: there are no swing voters; the only thing that changed in 2018 is turnout, Democrats can't and haven't won over any Trump voters. And whatever you think of the optimal strategy for Democrats, this is all facially untrue

        24 replies 92 retweets 363 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Sep 2019

        And honestly, I can't tell you the case to the contrary. I do think there's a case that Clinton *might* have *barely* won with a 2012 turnout, though fallen far short of Obama in key states. But I'm not aware of a serious case for 'turnout explains all,' or anything like it

        11 replies 15 retweets 166 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Sep 2019

        In our NC09 poll, for instance, the *same* people were Trump+11 approval and R+0.5 in the horse race.

        4 replies 21 retweets 163 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Sep 2019

        In our final polls of GA06, IL14, CA48 over the last days of the race, the sample was R+6 or more in all. Dems led in all, and ultimately won. Dems had huge inroads with past GOP voters.

        14 replies 30 retweets 251 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. Frida Ghitis‏Verified account @FridaGhitis 10 Sep 2019
        Replying to @Nate_Cohn

        Go on...listening

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Bobby Mozumder‏ @mozumder 10 Sep 2019
        Replying to @Nate_Cohn

        There are definitely swing voters, but the traditional ones are only a few %. Most swing voters aren't in the "middle". Instead, they're at the ends of the horseshoe, where the crazies go between Bernie, Trump, Jill Stein, Yang, etc..

        3 replies 2 retweets 2 likes
      3. LivingLiberally‏ @LiberallyLiving 10 Sep 2019
        Replying to @mozumder @Nate_Cohn

        A few percent is basically enough to swing every Presidential election in the last 30 years.

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 10 Sep 2019
        Replying to @Nate_Cohn

        Say more.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1. Adam Reed‏ @ReedAdamP 10 Sep 2019
        Replying to @Nate_Cohn

        @RachelBitecofer is all over this angle.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Evan Bear‏ @evanbear20 10 Sep 2019
        Replying to @Nate_Cohn

        Also, isn't it just math? Inspiring a new voter gets you +1 votes, but flipping a swing voter gets you +2.

        1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
      3. Green Mountain Bot‏ @GrnMtnBot 10 Sep 2019
        Replying to @evanbear20 @Nate_Cohn

        Inspiring a new voter gets you a new vote for Democrats downticket. Flipping an existing swing voter does not. Also, there are far more non-voters than there are flippable swing voters.

        3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
      4. Show replies

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