Historic turnout in 2020 might not work out as well for Democrats as many seem to assumehttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/15/upshot/2020-election-turnout-analysis.html?emc=rss&partner=rss&smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytpolitics …
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Nationwide, the president's approval rating was around 50% among these voters who turned out '16 and stayed home in '18, based on Times/Siena data extrapolated nationwide. In the Midwest, it's probably around 53%.pic.twitter.com/P48QjBSR0G
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The Democrats also had a difficult to detect, but substantial turnout advantage among young voters. Youth turnout was lower than older turnout. But the young voters who turned out were far likelier to disapprove of the president.pic.twitter.com/pVF62NwyCL
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This is the first of several pieces that will leverage the Times/Siena data, now with validated turnout in 49 of 50 states (not ME), along with other major sources to try and take stock of the president's standing heading into 2020, so stay tuned
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As an aside, I'm persuaded that the inclusion of noncitizens in polls of 'adults' roughly doubles the size of the adult-RV gap, and the Democratic opportunity among non-registered voters isn't quite as big as it would seem.
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End of conversation
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Hey Nate .. trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 has never been above that number his whole presidency and is losing to several dem. Challengers in recent polls so there’s that
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The ole switcheroo now this alternate reality version of the GOP delivers in Presidential years but not in midterms? Trump has truly broken the system.pic.twitter.com/PuJVodNIpQ
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Great analysis. Is there any way, or would it be meaningful, to look at the aging of the voters? Put another way, how many of the 2016 voters who "stayed home" in 2018, in fact, died? Or, do we assume that young people who did vote in 2016, will become Trumpier, as they age?
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U realize that pollsters are considered a joke today!
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No wonder no blue wave happened, only record GOP House retirements and a GOP gain in the Senate.
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