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Nate_Cohn's profile
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
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@Nate_Cohn

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Nate CohnVerified account

@Nate_Cohn

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/…
Joined January 2012

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    1. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jul 2019

      Historic turnout in 2020 might not work out as well for Democrats as many seem to assumehttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/15/upshot/2020-election-turnout-analysis.html?emc=rss&partner=rss&smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytpolitics …

      53 replies 241 retweets 473 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jul 2019

      High turnout might not help Democrats so much in the northern battlegrounds and could even help the president, as white, working class voters who stayed home in 2018 return to the polls. Dems would be helped in the more diverse Sun Belt, but maybe not by enoughpic.twitter.com/zSKQ1zIX21

      9 replies 40 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
      Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jul 2019

      White, working class voters were strongly overrepresented among 2018 non-voters in the northern battleground states, and in the Times/Siena data, those who voted in '16 and stayed home in 18 were particularly likely to approve of the presidentpic.twitter.com/Q8q6sRMe0R

      7:05 AM - 15 Jul 2019 from Brooklyn, NY
      • 50 Retweets
      • 82 Likes
      • Little green leaves in the wood MikeyKord schilling Space Force Cpt. Buchholz Jeremy Vasek Vinny Nole JohnBagnose Brian D Brown erichc21
      7 replies 50 retweets 82 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jul 2019

          Nationwide, the president's approval rating was around 50% among these voters who turned out '16 and stayed home in '18, based on Times/Siena data extrapolated nationwide. In the Midwest, it's probably around 53%.pic.twitter.com/P48QjBSR0G

          7 replies 29 retweets 67 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jul 2019

          The Democrats also had a difficult to detect, but substantial turnout advantage among young voters. Youth turnout was lower than older turnout. But the young voters who turned out were far likelier to disapprove of the president.pic.twitter.com/pVF62NwyCL

          3 replies 24 retweets 73 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jul 2019

          This is the first of several pieces that will leverage the Times/Siena data, now with validated turnout in 49 of 50 states (not ME), along with other major sources to try and take stock of the president's standing heading into 2020, so stay tuned

          4 replies 10 retweets 59 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 15 Jul 2019

          As an aside, I'm persuaded that the inclusion of noncitizens in polls of 'adults' roughly doubles the size of the adult-RV gap, and the Democratic opportunity among non-registered voters isn't quite as big as it would seem.

          2 replies 14 retweets 77 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. Shy Sullivan‏ @CheyenneSulli14 15 Jul 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Hey Nate .. trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 has never been above that number his whole presidency and is losing to several dem. Challengers in recent polls so there’s that

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Zach Zaerr‏ @CzarZaerr 15 Jul 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          The ole switcheroo now this alternate reality version of the GOP delivers in Presidential years but not in midterms? Trump has truly broken the system.pic.twitter.com/PuJVodNIpQ

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Stephen Sherman‏ @stephenesherman 15 Jul 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn

          Great analysis. Is there any way, or would it be meaningful, to look at the aging of the voters? Put another way, how many of the 2016 voters who "stayed home" in 2018, in fact, died? Or, do we assume that young people who did vote in 2016, will become Trumpier, as they age?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. brotherwatt‏ @brotherwatt65 15 Jul 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn @barnes_law

          U realize that pollsters are considered a joke today!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1.  🍌 🍌 🍌VACUOUS CIPHER 🍌 🍌 🍌‏ @THE_DAILY_BLEAT 18 Jul 2019
          Replying to @Nate_Cohn @StarCoreOne02

          No wonder no blue wave happened, only record GOP House retirements and a GOP gain in the Senate.🙂

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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