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The Democrats have put a long list of Republican-leaning districts into play. But it's not clear whether they actually lead in a lot of them. That means there's still a wide range of possible outcomes in the fight for control of the House

nytimes.com

Battle for the House Has a Wide Range of Possible Outcomes (Published 2018)

The size of the Democratic advantage is unclear, polling shows, and the Kavanaugh controversy introduces an element of volatility.

5:51 PM · Oct 7, 2018

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Maybe the easiest way to summarize this fact: the FiveThirtyEight forecast, last I looked, had Democrats favored to win +33 seats, well over the 23 they need. But FiveThirtyEight only had them favored in 218 individual contests, precisely the number needed for a majority

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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

Oct 7, 2018

Probably relatedly, this is also the pattern in our polls. Dems have comfortably led enough of our polls to be at +18. There are then another ~20 races within 5 points. Dems wouldn't need many. But they haven't actually led in most of them. There's a lot of GOP < +3/4.

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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

Oct 7, 2018

This has always been the danger for the Democrats. The GOP's one big, potential advantage in this election is the House's political geography. If they could take advantage of it, by driving House results towards pres results, it's a very long night, even in a 06/10-type wave.

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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

Oct 7, 2018

Today we're back in the field in NY01, IL14, NC13 and PA16. Four Trump CDs with GOP incumbents, only up single digits. Dems don't need any of these four districts. But they need breakthroughs, somewhere, by/on Election Night. A long month to go.

nytimes.com

Polling the 2018 Midterm Elections in Real Time (Published 2019)

The Upshot has partnered with Siena College to poll dozens of the most competitive House and Senate races across the country.

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Declassified Just By Thinking About It

@KarheemH

Oct 7, 2018

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@Nate_Cohn

To be perfectly honest, everyone who is hedging / playing both sides (because of being burned in 2016) and not coming down clearly on who will win the House is mad soft and I cant get with that. And I dont want people claiming "told you so", citing their data after dems win.

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Totally agree. Soooo much CYA going on by reporters.

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I’m seeing exactly the same unsubstantiated assumptions made right now I saw before Brexit and Nov ‘16 about a ‘blue wave’. It’s a tiring cycle. The only reality is personal actions.

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Dems have put up great candidates throughout nation. It's a shame there's no national leadership to portray a strong national party with clear, compelling themes that give local candidates an edge.