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@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008
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  1. 50 minutes ago

    Are Jacob Wohl and Michael Avenatti in some kind of dare to see who can be accused of the most crimes?

    NEW: Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman have been trying to recruit young men to falsely claim they were sexually assaulted by Pete Buttigieg. One recorded their convo and gave us the audio. Another says allegations published today in his name are bullshit
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    54 replies . 301 retweets 2,128 likes
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  2. 2 hours ago

    On this week's podcast, we talked about Bernie vs. Warren, Bernie vs. The Establishment, and Peto Buttichar.

    Biden is in. But most of the Democratic establishment is still on the sidelines.
    13 replies . 5 retweets 70 likes
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  3. 2 hours ago

    Also, while lots of ventures shift focus pre-launch, you'd think being crowdfunded would lead to more vigorous efforts to follow through on the spirit of your mission as reasonably understood by donors/members (not to mention by employees and "ambassadors").

    5 replies . 3 retweets 37 likes
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  4. 3 hours ago

    Yeah, what's frustrating IMO is that they're litigating the narrow question of physical office space in NYC (which I agree isn't so important) to claim they haven't changed plans. But shifting from a *new US-focused publication* to an *English-language expansion* is a big change.

    And to be clear we were not discussing a physical office space so much as US-based reporting with the first hires being likely based in NY, with a holes for expansion thereafter. The US-based talent and voice was key for me, even if home-base was overseas.
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    7 replies . 6 retweets 69 likes
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  5. 5 hours ago

    Also, these policy views are fairly squarely within the Democratic mainstream (while also happening to be reasonably popular with general election voters). He's not exactly running as a centrist.

    Some policy ideas in Biden's first speech---$15 minimum wage, getting rid of Trump tax cuts, allowing anyone to buy into Medicare, free community college.
    35 replies . 50 retweets 307 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    5 hours ago

    Mentions of 2020 candidates on cable news last week. 📺📊📈📉📊 Biden got more than twice as much coverage on CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC on Thursday than Sanders did the day he announced his candidacy back in February. from

    22 replies . 25 retweets 94 likes
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  7. 5 hours ago

    Also helps Biden that he doesn't have to spend a lot of time explaining who he is. A lot of the candidates' elevator pitches are mishmashes of biography, values & policy. It's hard to cram in all 3. If you can dispense with the bio, you can focus more effectively on the other 2.

    43 replies . 42 retweets 405 likes
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  8. 6 hours ago

    This is why I don't get the Takes that are like "Biden doesn't have a message that will resonate with today's Democrats." This stuff isn't trendy but I'd guess it ought to have fairly broad, meat-and-potatoes appeal, especially with older Democrats.

    173 replies . 131 retweets 739 likes
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  9. 6 hours ago

    If you're willing to say "trying to impeach president Trump will materially increase his chances of re-election, but Democrats should do it anyway because it's the right thing to do!", more power to you! That's a much more grounded & honest argument than some of what I'm seeing.

    The counterpoint is that leadership sometimes involves doing unpopular things.
    205 replies . 97 retweets 805 likes
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  10. 6 hours ago

    People are welcome to engage in as much special pleading or 13-dimensional-chess-thinking as they want. But empirically, it's rare that when Party X takes an action that polls as being highly unpopular, it turns out well for them politically in the near-to-medium term.

    163 replies . 44 retweets 441 likes
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  11. 6 hours ago

    There's a llllllllooooooottt of not-terribly-persuasive attempts by some Democrats to rationalize away the fact that launching impeachment proceedings against Trump is a really unpopular move.

    308 replies . 90 retweets 671 likes
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  12. 8 hours ago

    Maybe my impression is/was wrong. But their first/only US-based hire () had same impression. FWIW, I also communicated this to them privately a few weeks ago. I hope they'll find a better way to address people's concerns rather than just calling it a misunderstanding.

    9 replies . 8 retweets 81 likes
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  13. 8 hours ago

    FWIW, I had the same impression as : that they were "coming to the US". That can mean a lot of things; I don't care about a physical office. But an English-language expansion run from abroad with just 1-2 US correspondents isn't what I thought I was getting behind.

    4 replies . 10 retweets 88 likes
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  14. 8 hours ago

    As someone who was an "ambassador" for The Correspondent—not a paid position, just someone who likes the ideas/people behind the publication and so helped to promote its crowdfunding campaign—I think you should read this.

    9 replies . 33 retweets 132 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    16 hours ago

    Who takes a hit now that Biden’s in the race?

    16 replies . 7 retweets 65 likes
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  16. Apr 28

    It seems like if you have a "Trump's gonna win in the landslide because of the economy" prediction you have to work a little harder to explain how that's gonna work when his approval rating is 41% now despite a really good economy.

    Opinion: The 2020 election isn’t going to be close
    346 replies . 613 retweets 3,764 likes
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  17. Apr 28

    So basically you treat it like a loose ball foul on the rebound attempt... offensive team gets the ball back but only shoots free throws if it's in the penalty. A ref still could call a traditional shooting foul, but this would be another option for more incidental contact.

    21 replies . 4 retweets 105 likes
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  18. Apr 28

    Not sure I agree it evened out for Harden today... but I do think it's tricky for refs and maybe they need the option to call a non-shooting foul in cases where there's illegal contact after the shot that didn't greatly affect the shooter's release.

    Harden probably got 3-4 calls in the second half that were very questionable, including one where he grabbed Looney's arm and flopped. It really does even out, he's extremely hard to ref.
    21 replies . 5 retweets 122 likes
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  19. Apr 28

    Would be sort of hilarious if right when all the political pundits think populism is on the upswing, 2019/2020 instead proves to be the revival of center-left neo-liberalism.

    Center-left soared [that's something we haven't seen in recent years, have we?!] in Spain's elections today, & will likely govern. Question now is whether left parties on their own can form a majority coalition—& whether the PSOE looks there rather than to its right.
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    1,020 replies . 453 retweets 2,630 likes
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  20. Apr 28

    The least accurate part of the movie was that the dinosaurs only sold at auction for like $4 million.

    3:05
    It may make for good entertainment, but "Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom" didn't portray dinosaurs 100% accurately
    27 replies . 83 retweets 979 likes
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