Nate SilverПотвърден профил

Are Jacob Wohl and Michael Avenatti in some kind of dare to see who can be accused of the most crimes?https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/1123013699994836992 …

On this week's podcast, we talked about Bernie vs. Warren, Bernie vs. The Establishment, and Peto Buttichar.https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1122994879699804160 …

Also, while lots of ventures shift focus pre-launch, you'd think being crowdfunded would lead to more vigorous efforts to follow through on the spirit of your mission as reasonably understood by donors/members (not to mention by employees and "ambassadors").

Yeah, what's frustrating IMO is that they're litigating the narrow question of physical office space in NYC (which I agree isn't so important) to claim they haven't changed plans. But shifting from a *new US-focused publication* to an *English-language expansion* is a big change.https://twitter.com/AoDespair/status/1122985734833672193 …

Also, these policy views are fairly squarely within the Democratic mainstream (while also happening to be reasonably popular with general election voters). He's not exactly running as a centrist.https://twitter.com/perrybaconjr/status/1122966259954606083 …

Also helps Biden that he doesn't have to spend a lot of time explaining who he is. A lot of the candidates' elevator pitches are mishmashes of biography, values & policy. It's hard to cram in all 3. If you can dispense with the bio, you can focus more effectively on the other 2.

If you're willing to say "trying to impeach president Trump will materially increase his chances of re-election, but Democrats should do it anyway because it's the right thing to do!", more power to you! That's a much more grounded & honest argument than some of what I'm seeing.https://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/1122959747152601089 …

People are welcome to engage in as much special pleading or 13-dimensional-chess-thinking as they want. But empirically, it's rare that when Party X takes an action that polls as being highly unpopular, it #actually turns out well for them politically in the near-to-medium term.

There's a llllllllooooooottt of not-terribly-persuasive attempts by some Democrats #OnHere to rationalize away the fact that launching impeachment proceedings against Trump is a really unpopular move.

Maybe my impression is/was wrong. But their first/only US-based hire (@zainabshah) had same impression. FWIW, I also communicated this to them privately a few weeks ago. I hope they'll find a better way to address people's concerns rather than just calling it a misunderstanding.

FWIW, I had the same impression as @zainabshah: that they were "coming to the US". That can mean a lot of things; I don't care about a physical office. But an English-language expansion run from abroad with just 1-2 US correspondents isn't what I thought I was getting behind.

It seems like if you have a "Trump's gonna win in the landslide because of the economy" prediction you have to work a little harder to explain how that's gonna work when his approval rating is 41% now despite a really good economy.https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1122675386406580225 …

So basically you treat it like a loose ball foul on the rebound attempt... offensive team gets the ball back but only shoots free throws if it's in the penalty. A ref still could call a traditional shooting foul, but this would be another option for more incidental contact.

Not sure I agree it evened out for Harden today... but I do think it's tricky for refs and maybe they need the option to call a non-shooting foul in cases where there's illegal contact after the shot that didn't greatly affect the shooter's release.https://twitter.com/NateDuncanNBA/status/1122631394708971520 …

Would be sort of hilarious if right when all the political pundits think populism is on the upswing, 2019/2020 instead proves to be the revival of center-left neo-liberalism.https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1122593592369790976 …

The least accurate part of the movie was that the dinosaurs only sold at auction for like $4 million.https://twitter.com/techinsider/status/1122587286212960258 …