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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 8 Jun 2017

    Nate Silver Retweeted The Economist

    UKIP were polling slightly better than this, at 4%. Every European nationalist party has underperformed its polls since Trump was elected.https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/873027561424510976 …

    Nate Silver added,

    The EconomistVerified account @TheEconomist
    UKIP’s vote is projected to slip to about 2%, down from 12.6% in 2015 http://econ.st/2r1aHoh  pic.twitter.com/73lNRZnAEq
    9:16 PM - 8 Jun 2017
    • 1,163 Retweets
    • 2,161 Likes
    • 1YR12M12T1PM chrispy Adam Ren Not Nat #LoveNHS Faisal Qazi I have a dream. #Resist🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊 Andrei Oses Mac larry ard
    68 replies 1,163 retweets 2,161 likes
      1. Sherman "Ban All Nazis" Tank‏ @ShermanTankXC 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Sometimes the purpose of your life is to be a warning to others. I guess that's America in 2017.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Alberto Cottica‏ @alberto_cottica 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538 @doctorow

        Is that n = 2 (FN in France + UKIP in UK)?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Dimestore Publius‏ @Xeynon 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @alberto_cottica @NateSilver538 @doctorow

        Also Hofer losing in Austria, Wilders' party underperforming its polls in the Netherlands.

        2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. Alberto Cottica‏ @alberto_cottica 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @Xeynon @NateSilver538 @doctorow

        Good point. So n = 4.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Dimestore Publius‏ @Xeynon 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @alberto_cottica @NateSilver538 @doctorow

        It's not statistically significant but it is a trend worth watching. Similar to US special election results having a +D lean.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Tim Walsh‏ @TimBWalsh 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @Xeynon @alberto_cottica and

        So n = 4 where the denominator = 12? Max 16? Yes. It's significant.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. Alberto Cottica‏ @alberto_cottica 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @TimBWalsh @Xeynon and

        uh... n /is/ the denominator. Numerator would be "all" in the original tweet.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. Tim Walsh‏ @TimBWalsh 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @alberto_cottica @Xeynon and

        D'oh! Yes. My mistake. Corrected: Denominator of 12, max 16, makes the numerator of 4 significant.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      9. End of conversation
      1. Pavol Salgari エンキドゥ‏ @enkydu 8 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Maybe we should be thankful to @realDonaldTrump that people finally started thinking rationally. #TrumpMadePeopleThinkAgain

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. John Sheridan‏ @wwengr 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        The (Nate) Silver lining to the Trump presidency

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Carmel Hennessey‏ @CarmelJudeobsc1 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538 @VariabilityBlog

        that's a relief -- now it's time for Americans to clean house and #ImpeachTrump now

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Victor Venema‏ @VariabilityBlog 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @CarmelJudeobsc1 @NateSilver538

        Not so sure the alternative is better. Dems should be serious about stopping corporate rule and then easily win Congress in 2018.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Terence Aries‏ @TrenceA 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538 @GreatDismal

        Wilders' PVV gained a lot of seats. Our coalition system just works differently.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Niraj‏ @uscaero 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538 @MaxCRoser

        Damn, and here I thought Europe was supposed to serve as a warning for the US, not other way around... #resist

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. INTRPD™.‏ @oscarchim 8 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        That's the tRump effect taking hold - the more you know him, the less you think of him

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Colin"Very stable genius" #FBPE‏ @colinth7 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538 @chemosh933

        Bigly underperforming. Moe Cofefve required.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. kimba‏ @kimbathelyin 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Trump has saved the EU! No one wants to be like the US and Macron has already established himself as a far better leader than Trump or May!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Daniel Black‏ @cocobrice 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Little bit more complicated in UK as Conservatives adopted a more nationalist platform after brexit and Labour is more populist under corbyn

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Protect Voter Rights‏ @jryangolden 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        +Greens have overperformed where theyre competitive. Gained most seats in Netherlands. Won Austria PM vs rw nationalist. Now Labour...

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Ogunjobi Abraham‏ @wengerlincoln 9 Jun 2017
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Even d best as well

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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