epic troll
,(1) Conservative landslide, (2) solid Tory win (5-9 points) and (3) hung parliament are each about equally likely.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-three-scenarios-for-the-u-k-election/ …
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Well thank goodness we know that, that is very helpful.
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Yes, but these last polls are trending towards 1 or 2 in Nates analysis & away from 3, that's my pt. Mind you, the polls have been volatile!
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markets are similarly ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.predictit.org/Market/3188/How-many-seats-will-the-Conservatives-win-in-the-2017-UK-snap-election …
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does that mean 1/3rd?
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I'm telling you right here, right now, Mr Silver, that the chances of a Tory landslide are MASSIVELY greater than a hung Parliament.
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Cheers.
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Don't worry. Everyone will forget this was your final prediction and blah blah blah about how you didn't guess the outcome correctly.
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Also apparently probabilities don't exist
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