Nate's 1st rule: Almost all polling errors occur in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of what the conventional wisdom expects. 53eig.ht/2pXf4CX
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This rule has been uncannily accurate. It held for Le Pen, Brexit, Trump. The 2012 US election. The Greek bailout. The Scottish referendum.
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My concern is that this trend reflects pollsters herding toward elite opinion instead of trusting their data.
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Just conventional wisdom? Or some conventional wisdom as cover to try and shape results versus predict them? Methinks the latter.
Yes but the media is lying about his win saying he got 66% of vote because they don't count abstentions. He has no mandate.
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Not suggesting malice just partisan press that is increasingly op-ed versus hard news be it a left, center or right view.
In reality, how can one argue this was a major win for center-left globalism? Instead increased her base, and normalized FN.
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There is some selection bias in some of these examples, when you only remember the pundits who predicted wrong.