1. At the risk of starting a Nate vs Nate feud!: This is a good, interesting point but isn't large enough to mitigate the Comey effect.https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/861596068240293888 …
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9. Also, one's prior here shouldn't be zero effect. Earlier Email/FBI stories had a clear effect on Clinton's polls.http://53eig.ht/2mOj8RU
10. Here's the above data in graphical form. Re-running the 538 model based on when polls were CONDUCTED as opposed to when AVAILABLE.pic.twitter.com/OUPOL2Vehl
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She was already trending downwards
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With all due respect, not sure citing even detailed demo stats for *10/27 forward* addresses observation that slide began *10/24*.
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During a period of early voting in all 3 states that swung to Trump.
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even the nowcast is giving weight to polls conducted well before the date
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That assumes your polling was correct.......
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it's not his polling, far as I know. pretty sure 538 uses aggregates.
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Seems this falls into the "blame the ref" fallacy. Plenty of things over the course of the campaign could have cost her two points
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But since this was the "lead" I keep wondering if the peak was unnaturally high because shock of the grabbing videos was still in play?
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I'm sorry man, I should just write you an email about this and stop tweeting about it
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p-hacking.
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Seems like blaming the kicker for losing the game by missing a FG. While team missed opportunities to win outright earlier.
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So many here don't understand this graph. Her minor decline continued instead of bouncing back like before. That probably = Comey.
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Doesn't this show a downward trajectory for Hilary prior to Comey? The slope does not appear to increase much? Isn't that what is important?
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