2. Nate C. is right to point out that there's a lag between when polls are conducted and when they become publicly available.
1. At the risk of starting a Nate vs Nate feud!: This is a good, interesting point but isn't large enough to mitigate the Comey effect.https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/861596068240293888 …
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3. FiveThirtyEight's model at 12:01 am on Oct. 28 (Comey letter day), based on *available* polls, had Clinton up 5.9 points.
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4. What if we run the model with all polls that had been *conducted* before Comey even if they hadn't been released? Clinton up 5.2 instead.
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5. In other words, accounting for poll timing reduces the Comey effect by 0.7 points. But that would leave you with a 2 or 2.5-point effect…
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6. …and Clinton lost the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, by only 0.8 points. People seem to forget how narrow Trump's victory was.
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7. I argued here that I'm a "small Comey" guy. I think the effect was more like 1-2 points than 3-4 points…http://53eig.ht/2pFFLKg
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8. …I think it requires a pretty creative interpretation of the data to argue that Comey wasn't enough to swing WI, MI & PA, though.
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9. Also, one's prior here shouldn't be zero effect. Earlier Email/FBI stories had a clear effect on Clinton's polls.http://53eig.ht/2mOj8RU
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10. Here's the above data in graphical form. Re-running the 538 model based on when polls were CONDUCTED as opposed to when AVAILABLE.pic.twitter.com/OUPOL2Vehl
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@Nate_Cohn It's 70,000 votes across three states. Everythingwas decisive, including not going to Wisconsin, Comey, Wall Street, deplorables -
Well not going to Wisconsin clearly wasn't decisive. As you said it's three states.
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That's the most common thing thrown at Clinton is, "Well she should have gone to Wisconsin." Sums up all "blame Clinton" excuses.
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She should have not been a woman. That was her biggest single liability.
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Not so. Many of the votes she lost went to Jill Stein, also a woman
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I wish Nate Dogg was still around to chime in on this.
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With such a narrow victory for Trump isn't it possible to blame any number of things on Clinton defeat? Like Russia, deplorable comment etc?
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How fucked up would it be that she lost over her "deplorable" comment after all the shit trump said???
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