To follow: some *very* quick analysis which suggests the claim here of rigged results in Wisconsin is probably BS:http://nym.ag/2gI6YLP
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Run a regression on Wisc. counties with >=50K people, and you find that Clinton improved more in counties with only paper ballots. HOWEVER:pic.twitter.com/4swuU70NaY
...the effect COMPLETELY DISAPPEARS once you control for race and education levels, the key factors in predicting vote shifts this year.pic.twitter.com/NYOINx9lEz
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Maybe a more complicated analysis would reveal something, but usually bad news when a finding can't survive a basic sanity check like this.
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Nothing in Pennsylvania, either, whether or not you control for demographics.pic.twitter.com/25moBhv3Zm
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And Michigan has paper ballots everywhere, so not even sure what claim is being made there.pic.twitter.com/4YKrZEhTJl
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@NateSilver538 probably issues with central tabulators, not precinct level machines. That's where problems usually hide. -
@NateSilver538 you might want to take a look at http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/03/michigans_aging_voting_machine.html … and pay attention to tabulation as well as precinct voting. -
@NateSilver538 imo ought 2 be *more* willing 2 recount if unlikely 2 affect outcome. Sets good precedent 4 routine audits, adds confidence. - 1 more reply
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@NateSilver538@ForecasterEnten perhaps you boys can explain why there are more votes than ballots and/or registered voters in some WI 1/3 -
@NateSilver538@ForecasterEnten Outagamie was audited and updated this morning. Trump lost over 1k votes:https://twitter.com/dansolomon/status/801119244989542400 …
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@NateSilver538 1) Why are you measuring the "shift" instead of predicting vote totals? 2) Why raw values instead of log(values)? [cont'd] -
@NateSilver538 Population isn't distributed linearly, and the four largest counties in WI use paper. Could skew analysis. - 1 more reply
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@NateSilver538 also, how many likely clinton voters got turned away due to their new voting restrictions? - 1 more reply
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@NateSilver538 Nate, your statistical modeling apparently sucked & now you want us to use it instead of an audit or recount? In a word: NO - 1 more reply
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@NateSilver538@OlMucky You are crediting yourself with way too many significant digits in that analysis. -
@vielmetti@NateSilver538@OlMucky Don't blame Nate for that. Most stat packages show that many decimal points by default. -
@Danny__Ray@NateSilver538@OlMucky Yes, and most people don't know anything about stat packages (and see a wall of numbers).
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