To follow: some *very* quick analysis which suggests the claim here of rigged results in Wisconsin is probably BS:http://nym.ag/2gI6YLP
Run a regression on Wisc. counties with >=50K people, and you find that Clinton improved more in counties with only paper ballots. HOWEVER:pic.twitter.com/4swuU70NaY
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...the effect COMPLETELY DISAPPEARS once you control for race and education levels, the key factors in predicting vote shifts this year.pic.twitter.com/NYOINx9lEz
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Maybe a more complicated analysis would reveal something, but usually bad news when a finding can't survive a basic sanity check like this.
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Nothing in Pennsylvania, either, whether or not you control for demographics.pic.twitter.com/25moBhv3Zm
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And Michigan has paper ballots everywhere, so not even sure what claim is being made there.pic.twitter.com/4YKrZEhTJl
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@NateSilver538 probably issues with central tabulators, not precinct level machines. That's where problems usually hide. -
@NateSilver538 you might want to take a look at http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/03/michigans_aging_voting_machine.html … and pay attention to tabulation as well as precinct voting. -
@NateSilver538 imo ought 2 be *more* willing 2 recount if unlikely 2 affect outcome. Sets good precedent 4 routine audits, adds confidence. - 1 more reply
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@natesilver538 Article about this forthcoming? The chart is a little tough for us non-statisticians to read. - 1 more reply
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@NateSilver538 you use stata? -
@SarahKCowan@NateSilver538 this is what is blowing my mind. -
@colinaverill@SarahKCowan@NateSilver538 he is a big stats fanboy
. The prez election model was written in stata -
@colinaverill@SarahKCowan@NateSilver538 meant stata fanboy. He mentioned the model being in Stata on the podcast once
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@NateSilver538 Washoe county NV recount showed paper ballots scanned twice, Dem won by 36 votes -
Please recount votes
@jenscorpio83@NateSilver538
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@NateSilver538 you use STATA <3 -
@blevined@NateSilver538 I actually can't tell if I love or hate that you made this joke
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