High-quality national and state polls show Clinton favored but Trump within striking distance. http://53eig.ht/2ednH7Y
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Post-Comey national polls, sorted by pollster ratings. Best polls show Clinton up average of 2-3 points, just like our model (Clinton +2.8).pic.twitter.com/Z9v4M4rIX5
Today's high-quality state polls? Not awful for HRC. But she's underperfoming Obama in all 5 states: OH—C+1, T+1 FL—Tie IA—T+7 PA—C+4 NM—C+5
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Our model weights these recent, high-quality polls most heavily. That's how we get Clinton as a 2:1 favorite.pic.twitter.com/QBaQ5SBboi
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What's weird is that it seems kind of *intuitive* and *obvious* based on the polls that Clinton is favored but Trump has a shot...
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…I think people would be interpreting the evidence differently if Rubio or Kasich were in Trump's position in the polls.
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Kasich would have it wrapped up ages ago.
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Yup. Sad to be a Republican and have only 1 or 2 candidates in a 12 person field you can actually get behind
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Ditto other side in fairness. Should have been Bernie vs Kasich.
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She only needs to win each state by 1 vote. Given the early voting reports, I am not worried. There are a lot of hidden Hillary voters.
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she's not running against Obama
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This is a bad take
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(1) the race is to 270 and (2) Obama outperformed his polling averages, and the FL / PA numbers exceed Obama's in those states
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Could you/they be "misunderestimating" the massive Hispanic turnout?
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considering clintons name has been souring in republicans mouths for 30 yrs, I'm surprised she's doing well as she is. Go hil
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What about the early voting numbers? Is there a way to account for that?
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Early voting is consistent with a tight race with narrow Clinton lead.
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Underperforming Obama final, Not Underperforming O in polls in Florida, or PA.
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